Evolution of the Individual Attitude in the Risk Decision of Waste Incinerator Construction: Cellular Automaton Model

Abstract

In current work, the phenomenon of NIMBY (not in my back yard) for a municipal solid waste incinerator was recognized through an investigation for the evolution of individual risk attitude to group risk attitude (ItGRA). The cellular automaton model was employed to evaluate the risk attitude status with different frequencies of social interaction between residents. In the simulation case, the risk attitude of residents in the pseudo-rational state and non-pseudo-rational state was evaluated, which indicates the sheep-flock effect on the exaggeration of public NIMBY attitude. To the incinerator, the individual risk attitude evolved to supportive group risk attitude at a social interaction frequency 100 times higher than that in family or local neighborhoods, when the initial number of residents in opposition and support was equal. This was supported by the result of the model in the evaluation of resident risk attitude around the incinerator in Shanghai. On the contrary, for those in a non-pseudo-rational state, the ultimate group risk attitude depends on the probability that the residents have a supportive or opposing risk attitude as the concept of individuals was difficult to change. Accordingly, the decision strategy of incinerator construction should consider the influence of the sheep-flock effect, which can increase the attitude of residents in support and lead to the evolution of a group risk attitude to support attitude. Therefore, this study provides insight into the evolution of public attitude to NIMBY attitude and a promising evaluation method to quantify and guide the individual and group risk attitudes.

Risk Perception Thresholds and Their Impact on the Behavior of Nearby Residents in Waste to Energy Project Conflict: An Evolutionary Game Analysis

“…The causes of NIMBY conflicts, including those related to WTE projects, have been studied by numerous scholars from different perspectives. Previous studies either ignore the critical role of risk perception [6,8,[10][11][12][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37] or emphasize its role, but do not propose methods or indices for calculating and measuring changes in the risk perception of surrounding residents [13,14,[16][17][18][39][40][41]. We suggest that the risk perception threshold is a good indicator for determining changes in the risk perception of surrounding residents.…”

“…Liu et al [18] believe that environmental impact assessments play an important role in the siting of WTE facilities and enhance public acceptance of WTE projects by reducing the perceived risks. It would seem that in the context of WTE projects risk perception is a critical factor which affects the attitudes and behaviors of proximate residents and that conflicts related to WTE projects can be reduced through appropriate assessment and consideration of the risk perception of these residents [41].…”

In My Backyard? Discussing the NIMBY Effect, Social Acceptability, and Residents’ Involvement in Community-Based Solid Waste Management

“…Some bet on mathematical modeling, in terms of simulation and optimization, in order to analyze governance processes, externalities, inclusion of compensation, impacts on land value, and even individual and collective behavior in the affected populations. They thus adopt the perspective of addressing the NIMBY effect from a logic of harm reduction and the stabilization of social conflicts [13,14,20,21].…”

“…In the case of garbage incineration systems, for example, where local externalities are the target of great opposition, their global externalities also produce a negative view. In this sense, the NIMBY effect is considered to be a given, with several studies that are interested in its mitigation, compensation, or governance [13][14][15]. However, even though recycling also has negative local externalities, as demonstrated in previous studies, societal support for its expansion is commonplace.…”