Bayesian estimation of prevalence of paratuberculosis in dairy herds enrolled in a voluntary Johne’s Disease Control Programme in Ireland

McAloon, Conor G.; Doherty, Michael L.; Whyte, Paul; O’Grady, Luke; More, Simon J.; Messam, Locksley L. McV.; Good, Margaret; Mullowney, Peter C.; Strain, Sam; Green, Martin J.

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.04.014

Cited by 47 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Beta distributions were constructed for each test from central and dispersion estimates found in the literature (Vose, 2000). The sensitivity of the serum ELISA test was modeled by a beta distribution with a mode of 0.15 and upper 95th percentile of 0.30, whereas the sensitivity of the milk ELISA test was modeled by a beta distribution with a mode of 0.13 and upper 95th percentile of 0.26 (van Weering et al, 2007;Nielsen and Toft, 2008;Pozzato et al, 2011;More et al, 2013;McAloon et al, 2016a). Summary estimates of the specificity for these ELISA kits ranged from 0.98 to 1.00 (Nielsen and Toft, 2008;Nielsen et al, 2013).…”

Section: Model Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Summary estimates of the specificity for these ELISA kits ranged from 0.98 to 1.00 (Nielsen and Toft, 2008;Nielsen et al, 2013). Consequently, the specificity of the ELISA test was modeled by a beta distribution with a mode of 0.990 and upper 95th percentile of 0.995 (McAloon et al, 2016a). The sensitivity of the fecal culture in ELISA-positive animals was modeled by a All animals ≥2 yr old tested with either milk ELISA twice per year (cows in milk) or serum ELISA once per year (males and dry cows).…”

Section: Model Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling of alternative testing strategies to demonstrate freedom from Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis infection in test-negative dairy herds in the Republic of Ireland

Meyer

McAloon

Tratalos

et al. 2019

Journal of Dairy Science

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Section: Model Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling of alternative testing strategies to demonstrate freedom from Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis infection in test-negative dairy herds in the Republic of Ireland

Meyer

McAloon

Tratalos

et al. 2019

Journal of Dairy Science

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“…First, a probability of infection for each herd was estimated using a Bayesian latent class model. This model had the same structure and was implemented using the same methods as described in McAloon et al (2016a). Briefly, the number of test positive animals in a given herd was assumed to follow a binomial distribution with a probability equal to the apparent prevalence (AP) and n equal to the number of animals tested.…”

Section: Pafmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relative importance of herd-level risk factors for probability of infection with paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds

McAloon

Doherty

Whyte

et al. 2017

Journal of Dairy Science

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Control of paratuberculosis is challenging due to the relatively poor performance of diagnostic tests, a prolonged incubation period, and protracted environmental survival. Prioritization of herd-level interventions is not possible because putative risk factors are often not supported by risk factor studies. The objective for this study was to investigate the relative importance of risk factors for an increased probability of herd paratuberculosis infection. Risk assessment data, comprehensive animal purchase history, and diagnostic test data were available for 936 Irish dairy herds. Both logistic regression and a Bayesian β regression on the outcome of a latent class analysis were conducted. Population attributable fractions and proportional reduction in variance explained were calculated for each variable in the logistic and Bayesian models, respectively. Routine use of the calving area for sick or lame cows was found to be a significant explanatory covariate in both models. Purchasing behavior for the previous 10 yr was not found to be significant. For the logistic model, length of time calves spend in the calving pen (25%) and routine use of the calving pen for sick or lame animals (14%) had the highest attributable fractions. For the Bayesian model, the overall R 2 was 16%. Dry cow cleanliness (7%) and routine use of the calving area for sick or lame cows (6%) and had the highest proportional reduction in variance explained. These findings provide support for several management practices commonly recommended as part of paratuberculosis control programs; however, a large proportion of the observed variation in probability of infection remained unexplained, suggesting other important risks factors may exist.

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“…JD control programmes have been implemented in most developed countries, with objectives based on the national economic situation of the cattle, sheep and goat industry and the herd‐level prevalence of MAP infection (reviewed by Kennedy, ; Geraghty, Graham, Mullowney, & More, ). In general, objectives include the following: (i) prove and protect freedom of disease at the country, regional or farm‐level, for example, in Norway (Whist et al., ), Sweden (Frössling et al., ) and northern and western Australia (Kennedy, ); (ii) protect export of milk or genetics, for example, Canada (McKenna, Vanleeuwen, et al., ); (iii) decrease prevalence of MAP infection and limit farm‐level economic losses, for example, Denmark (Nielsen, Jepsen, & Aagaard, ), the UK (Pritchard, Coffey, Bond, Hutchings, & Wall, ), Ireland (McAloon et al., ) and the USA (Wells, Hartmann, & Anderson, ); (iv) eliminate or reduce MAP load in bulk milk, for example, the Netherlands (Weber & van Schaik, ); and (v) eliminate MAP infection, for example, Norway in goats (Nagel‐Alne et al., ).…”

Section: Control Programmesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Knowledge gaps that hamper prevention and control ofMycobacterium aviumsubspeciesparatuberculosisinfection

Barkema

Orsel

Nielsen

et al. 2017

Transbound Emerg Dis

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SummaryIn the last decades, many regional and country-wide control programmes for Johne's disease (JD) were developed due to associated economic losses, or because of a possible association with Crohn's disease. These control programmes were often not successful, partly because management protocols were not followed, including the introduction of infected replacement cattle, because tests to identify infected animals were unreliable, and uptake by farmers was not high enough because of a perceived low return on investment. In the absence of a cure or effective commercial vaccines, control of JD is currently primarily based on herd management strategies to avoid infection of cattle and restrict within-farm and farm-to-farm transmission. Although JD control programmes have been implemented in most developed countries, lessons learned from JD prevention and control programmes are underreported. Also, JD control programmes are typically evaluated in a limited number of herds and the duration of the study is less than 5 year, making it difficult to adequately assess the efficacy of control programmes. In this manuscript, we identify the most important gaps in knowledge hampering JD prevention and control programmes, including vaccination and diagnostics. Secondly, we discuss directions that research should take to address those knowledge gaps. K E Y W O R D Scontrol, Johne's disease, Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis, prevention

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Bayesian estimation of prevalence of paratuberculosis in dairy herds enrolled in a voluntary Johne’s Disease Control Programme in Ireland

Cited by 47 publications

References 25 publications

Modeling of alternative testing strategies to demonstrate freedom from Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis infection in test-negative dairy herds in the Republic of Ireland

Modeling of alternative testing strategies to demonstrate freedom from Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis infection in test-negative dairy herds in the Republic of Ireland

Relative importance of herd-level risk factors for probability of infection with paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds

Knowledge gaps that hamper prevention and control ofMycobacterium aviumsubspeciesparatuberculosisinfection

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