Bayesian hierarchical methods for modeling electrical grid component failures

Transmission line outage rates are fundamental to power system reliability analysis. Line outages are infrequent, occurring only about once a year, so outage data are limited. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that leverages line dependencies to better estimate outage rates of individual transmission lines from limited outage data. The Bayesian estimates have a lower standard deviation than estimating the outage rates simply by dividing the number of outages by the number of years of data, especially when the number of outages is small. The Bayesian model produces more accurate individual line outage rates, as well as estimates of the uncertainty of these rates. Better estimates of line outage rates can improve system risk assessment, outage prediction, and maintenance scheduling.

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Bayesian hierarchical methods for modeling electrical grid component failures

Cited by 3 publications

References 16 publications

Regional Multihazard Risk-Assessment Method for Overhead Transmission Line Structures Based on Failure Rate and a Bayesian Updating Scheme

Regional Multihazard Risk-Assessment Method for Overhead Transmission Line Structures Based on Failure Rate and a Bayesian Updating Scheme

Statistical Methods in Measuring the Emergency Condition Parameters in Networks with Distributed Energy Resources

Bayesian Estimates of Transmission Line Outage Rates That Consider Line Dependencies

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