2021
DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100522
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Behavioral biases in the NFL gambling market: Overreaction to news and the recency bias

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Cited by 17 publications
(10 citation statements)
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“…In this study, recency bias is proven to be a predictor of investment decisions. These results support research by Rudiawarni et al (2020), Durand et al (2021), Rabbani et al (2021) that recency bias is part of the investment decisions of capital market investors where bias behavior is carried out by an individual who only remembers or is based on the latest source of information he just obtained. This psychological condition of investors is possible because it is in accordance with prospect theory that there is a continuous bias motivated by psychological factors that influence investors' minds in making investment decisions.…”
Section: Inner Modelsupporting
confidence: 85%
“…In this study, recency bias is proven to be a predictor of investment decisions. These results support research by Rudiawarni et al (2020), Durand et al (2021), Rabbani et al (2021) that recency bias is part of the investment decisions of capital market investors where bias behavior is carried out by an individual who only remembers or is based on the latest source of information he just obtained. This psychological condition of investors is possible because it is in accordance with prospect theory that there is a continuous bias motivated by psychological factors that influence investors' minds in making investment decisions.…”
Section: Inner Modelsupporting
confidence: 85%
“…A possible psychological effect to be taken into account is that bettors might in fact overreact to in-game dynamics, with positive actions by a team leading them to overestimate the winning probabilities. This kind of overreaction to positive events has in fact already been reported in sports betting (Durand et al, 2021;Ötting et al, 2021) and is also known to occur in financial markets (see, e.g. Ma et al, 2005;Piccoli et al, 2017).…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 52%
“…Although only 45% of the betting volume in Europe (European Gaming & Betting Association, 2020) is placed in the pre-game market, empirical research to date has largely focused on this market, investigating market (in-)efficiencies, overand underreaction of bettors, drivers of betting volume and forecasting of match outcomes, to name but a few (see, e.g. Thaler and Ziemba, 1988;Vergin, 2001;Dixon and Pope, 2004;Feddersen et al, 2017;Deutscher et al, 2018;Brown and Reade, 2019;Butler et al, 2021;Durand et al, 2021). In contrast, for the in-game market, the existing literature to date has mostly focused on inefficiencies (see, e.g.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Durand et al. (2021) also find bettors to overweight recent outcomes against the spread when placing their wagers. Based on individual bettor's data, Andrikogiannopoulou and Papakonstantinou (2018) find three quarters of the gamblers observed display trend‐chasing behavior while none of them earns abnormal returns by doing so.…”
Section: Bounded Rationalitymentioning
confidence: 96%
“…A question that has attracted much attention is whether betting on hot hands is profitable (see e.g., Durand et al., 2021; Byrnes & Farinella, 2016; Arkes, 2011; Paul & Weinbach, 2005; Brown & Sauer, 1993; Camerer, 1989; Gandar et al., 1988).…”
Section: Bounded Rationalitymentioning
confidence: 99%