Behavioral Modelling in a Decision Support System

Rinaldi, Francesca; Jonsson, Ragnar; Sallnäs, Ola; Trubins, Renats

doi:10.3390/f6020311

Cited by 24 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…et al [17] propose a concept for integrating forest resource assessment and economic modeling of harvesting behavior, using a pan-European forest modeling framework taking into account different attitudes and objectives among forest owners. However, the approach is less suitable for the landscape or regional level, as it is rather coarse and, so far, only based on informed estimates.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for a Diverse Forest Ownership Structure in Projections of Forest Sustainability Indicators

Eggers¹,

Holmström²,

Lämås³

et al. 2015

Forests

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Abstract:In this study, we assessed the effect of a diverse ownership structure with different management strategies within and between owner categories in long-term projections of economic, ecological and social forest sustainability indicators, representing important ecosystem services, for two contrasting Swedish municipalities. This was done by comparing two scenarios: one where the diversity of management strategies was accounted for (Diverse) and one where it was not (Simple). The Diverse scenario resulted in a 14% lower total harvested volume for the 100 year period compared to the Simple scenario, which resulted in a higher growing stock and a more favorable development of the ecological indicators. The higher proportion of sparse forests and the lower proportion of clear-felled sites made the Diverse scenario more appropriate for delivering access to common outdoor recreation activities, while the Simple scenario projected more job opportunities. Differences between the scenarios were considerable already in the medium term (after 20 years of simulation). Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the variety of management strategies employed by forest owners in medium-to long-term projections of the development of forest sustainability indicators. OPEN ACCESSForests 2015, 6 4002

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for a Diverse Forest Ownership Structure in Projections of Forest Sustainability Indicators

Eggers¹,

Holmström²,

Lämås³

et al. 2015

Forests

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“…From the wide field of multi-criteria decision making techniques, Mendoza et al [15] compare different forest management schemes of Mexico in order to identify best management approaches considering multi-resources, environmental impacts and non-timber values. Considering the increased need for the involvement of preferences of decision makers, Rinaldi et al [16] provide an example of how forest owner specific characterization can be integrated in a DSS by linking a behavioral harvesting decision model to a forest resource dynamics model. They showed that the distribution of different owner types on forestland affects harvesting intensity and inter-temporal forest development.…”

Section: Decision Support Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Support for the Provision of Ecosystem Services under Climate Change: An Editorial

Vacik

Borges

García-Gonzalo

et al. 2015

Forests

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Abstract:The Special Issue "Providing Ecosystem Services under Climate Change: Community of Practice of Forest Decision Support Systems" is based on the presentations given at the 24th World Congress of the International Union of Forest Research Organizations and provides an overview on Forest Management Decision Support Systems currently designed and applied for the sustained provision of ecosystem services within the context of climate change. The contributions provide an overview on models, methods, techniques used in decision support and the proposed frameworks to support decision making. With populations and economies growing worldwide, the demands on forest resources increase, and sustaining the supply of ecosystem services becomes crucial. Through growing public participation in decisions regarding the management of natural resources, new demands have emerged for tools that support our understanding of environmental issues, and for the development and evaluation of alternative management options; there is a desire to project the consequences of different courses of action. Decision Support Systems (DSS) have been proven to solve such ill-structured decision problems by integrating database management systems with analytical and operational research models, thus providing various reporting capabilities. Several case studies focus on decision problems, the development and evaluation of alternative management options, OPEN ACCESSForests 2015, 6 3213 and on projecting the consequences of different courses of action in the provision of ecosystem services. Conclusions on the state-of-the-art in decision support and the needed advances in research are drawn.

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“…For further details regarding model structure, assumptions, and input data, we refer the reader to Jonsson et al (2015).…”

Section: The Global Forest Trade Model (Gftm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, for countries not (yet) modeled by EFDM, the simpler model mentioned above is used to provide the maximal sustainable harvesting level. Although EFDM provides the supply of timber split in sawlogs and pulpwood, the real proportion is derived in the GFTM depending on the demand for wood-based products and wood pellets (Jonsson et al 2015).…”

Section: Model Linkagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, multiple errors propagate over time, should the satisfaction of the demand for woody biomass calculated by the economic forest sector model require a lower harvesting level than the sustainable potential derived by the forest resource model (Rinaldi et al 2015). In addition, none of these studies accounted for timber assortments (sawlogs and pulp-/fuel-wood, respectively), neither when allocating the harvest demand from the market model in the forest model, nor when deriving in the latter the harvest potential to be used as bounds for the production.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating forest-based industry and forest resource modeling

Jonsson¹,

Rinaldi²,

Räty³

et al. 2016

iForest

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This paper introduces a modeling approach for the assessment of policy options within the forest-based bioeconomy. The feedback between the forestry dynamics model and the economic model of the global forest-based sector of the proposed framework is essential, not only for response analysis as to the development of forest resources and for a correct assessment of future harvesting potentials, but also for the assessment of the impact of different management regimes on wood-based product markets. Test runs of the modeling framework on a Swedish case highlight the necessity of considering timber assortments for a comprehensive integration of forest resources and wood-based commodity market dynamics. Hence, the composition of harvest demand in terms of timber assortment affects the allocation of harvesting activities and, consequently, the development of forest resources (and thus future harvest potentials), as well as the production, trade and consumption of wood-based products.

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Behavioral Modelling in a Decision Support System

Cited by 24 publications

References 7 publications

Accounting for a Diverse Forest Ownership Structure in Projections of Forest Sustainability Indicators

Accounting for a Diverse Forest Ownership Structure in Projections of Forest Sustainability Indicators

Decision Support for the Provision of Ecosystem Services under Climate Change: An Editorial

Integrating forest-based industry and forest resource modeling

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