Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events

Verbeke, C.; Mays, M. L.; Temmer, Manuela; Bingham, Suzy; Steenburgh, R. A.; Dumbović, Mateja; Núñez, Marlon; Jian, L. K.; Hess, Phillip; Wiegand, C.; Taktakishvili, A.; Andries, Jesse

doi:10.1029/2018sw002046

Cited by 68 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 81 publications

(125 reference statements)

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“…Over the last decade, the WSA relation for specifying solar wind conditions near the Sun has been one of the most frequently used modelling approaches for studying the consequences of evolving space weather in the heliosphere. Examples include the prediction of high-speed solar wind streams [33,21,39], the prediction of arrival time and speed of coronal mass ejections [59,69,49,63], the study of the sensitivity of CME events to model parameter settings [60,7], the propagation of coronal mass ejections in the evolving ambient solar wind [24,56], the prediction of solar energetic particles [23,19,66], the understanding of how the evolving ambient solar wind flow interacts with planetary magnetospheres [9], or the study of Forbush decreases in the flux of galactic cosmic rays [68].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. II. An Adaptive Prediction System for Specifying Solar Wind Speed near the Sun

Reiss

MacNeice

Muglach

et al. 2020

ApJ

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The ambient solar wind flows and fields influence the complex propagation dynamics of coronal mass ejections in the interplanetary medium and play an essential role in shaping Earth's space weather environment. A critical scientific goal in the space weather research and prediction community is to develop, implement and optimize numerical models for specifying the large-scale properties of solar wind conditions at the inner boundary of the heliospheric model domain. Here we present an adaptive prediction system that fuses information from in situ measurements of the solar wind into numerical models to better match the global solar wind model solutions near the Sun with prevailing physical conditions in the vicinity of Earth. In this way, we attempt to advance the predictive capabilities of well-established solar wind models for specifying solar wind speed, including the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. In particular, we use the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model for mapping the solar wind solutions from the near-Sun environment to the vicinity of Earth. In addition, we present the newly developed Tunable HUX (THUX) model which solves the viscous form of the underlying Burgers equation. We perform a statistical analysis of the resulting solar wind predictions for the time 2006-2015. The proposed prediction scheme improves all the investigated coronal/heliospheric model combinations and produces better estimates of the solar wind state at Earth than our reference baseline model. We discuss why this is the case, and conclude that our findings have important implications for future practice in applied space weather research and prediction.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. II. An Adaptive Prediction System for Specifying Solar Wind Speed near the Sun

Reiss

MacNeice

Muglach

et al. 2020

ApJ

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“…Critical importance of predicting IMF and especially Bz component is acknowledged by the scientific community. Significant progress has been made in benchmarking CME arrival time but predicting structure and orientation of a CME remains challenging (Kilpua et al., 2019; Verbeke et al., 2019). Existing solar wind measurements at 1 AU and in front of the bow shock may not be the best representation of the solar wind driver for the geospace modeling (Walsh et al., 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Models

et al. 2020

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Prediction of ionospheric state is a critical space weather problem. We expand on our previous research of medium-range ionospheric forecasts and present new results on evaluating prediction capabilities of three physics-based ionosphere-thermosphere models (Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model, TIE-GCM; Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model, CTIPe; and Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model, GITM). The focus of our study is understanding how current modeling approaches may predict the global ionosphere for geomagnetic storms (as studied through 35 storms during 2000-2016). Prediction approach uses physics-based modeling without any manual model adjustment, quality control, or selection of the results. Our goal is to understand to what extent current physics-based modeling can be used in total electron content (TEC) prediction and explore uncertainties of these prediction efforts with multiday lead times. The ionosphere-thermosphere model runs are driven by actual interplanetary conditions, whether those data come from real-time measurements or predicted values themselves. These model runs were performed by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)-produced global ionospheric maps (GIMs) were used to validate model TEC estimates. We utilize the True Skill Statistic (TSS) metric for the TEC prediction evaluation, noting that this is but one metric to assess predictive skill and that complete evaluations require combinations of such metrics. The meanings of contingency table elements for the prediction performance are analyzed in the context of ionosphere modeling. Prediction success is between about 0.2 and 0.5 for weak ionospheric disturbances and decreases for strong disturbances. We evaluate the prediction of TEC decreases and increases. Our results indicate that physics-based modeling during storms shows promise in TEC prediction with multiday lead time.

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“…Taking an average of all the methods also illustrated the value of super-ensembles as it performed best overall (Murray 2018). It was recommended that official forecast centres work towards publishing forecasts in an internationally standardised, agreed-upon format (see for example Verbeke et al 2018).…”

Section: Summary Of Presentationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summary of the plenary sessions at European Space Weather Week 15: space weather users and service providers working together now and in the future

Bingham

Murray

Guerrero

et al. 2019

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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During European Space Weather Week 15 two plenary sessions were held to review the status of operational space weather forecasting. The first session addressed the topic of working with space weather service providers now and in the future, the user perspective. The second session provided the service perspective, addressing experiences in forecasting development and operations. Presentations in both sessions provided an overview of international efforts on these topics, and panel discussion topics arising in the first session were used as a basis for panel discussion in the second session. Discussion topics included experiences during the September 2017 space weather events, cross domain impacts, timeliness of notifications, and provision of effective user education. Users highlighted that a severe space weather event did not necessarily lead to severe impacts for each individual user across the different sectors. Service providers were generally confident that timely and reliable information could be provided during severe and extreme events, although stressed that more research and funding were required in this relatively new field of operational space weather forecasting, to ensure continuation of capabilities and further development of services, in particular improved forecasting targeting user needs. Here a summary of the sessions is provided followed by a commentary on the current state-of-the-art and potential next steps towards improvement of services.

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Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events

Cited by 68 publications

References 81 publications

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. II. An Adaptive Prediction System for Specifying Solar Wind Speed near the Sun

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. II. An Adaptive Prediction System for Specifying Solar Wind Speed near the Sun

Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Models

Summary of the plenary sessions at European Space Weather Week 15: space weather users and service providers working together now and in the future

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