Between suburbanisation and re-urbanisation: revisiting the urban life cycle in a Mediterranean compact city

Morelli, Vittorio Gargiulo; Ρόντος, Κώστας; Salvati, Luca

doi:10.1080/17535069.2014.885744

Cited by 131 publications

(166 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Earlier studies have sometimes outlined a transition towards distinctive dynamics of urban expansion in recent decades [5], featuring specific forms of exurban development, polycentric growth, and spatially-heterogeneous patterns of population expansion or shrinkage [6][7][8][9]. In this framework, demographic processes had a powerful transformative effect on inner cities, diversifying urban landscapes and producing relevant changes in housing markets and economic structures [10][11][12]. Empirical evidence for re-urbanization has recently been documented in Europe [13][14][15][16], with inner cities re-attracting populations and suburbs experiencing demographic stability or moderate decline [17][18][19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a New Cycle: Short-Term Population Dynamics, Gentrification, and Re-Urbanization of Milan (Italy)

2018

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Abstract:After sequential cycles of urbanization and suburbanization, European cities underwent a (more or less intense) re-urbanization wave. The present study analyzes short-term population dynamics in the core of a large metropolitan region (Milan, northern Italy), providing evidence of spatially-heterogeneous re-urbanization characterized by spatially-complex population growth (or shrinkage) at a local scale. Population dynamics over 1999-2017 were assessed in 88 urban districts partitioning Milan s municipal area and projected up to 2036 for the same spatial units. Empirical results identify spatially-complex and temporally non-linear dynamics with expanding or declining districts distributed heterogeneously across the study area. Multivariate analysis outlines a generalized population decline during 1999-2008 and an opposite pattern afterward (2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017), with spatially-homogeneous population expansion expected in the near future. Spatial analysis finally highlights that local-scale population growth rates were more clustered in 2008-2017 than in 1999-2008. While the population decreased continuously in the inner districts (<1 km from the city centre), sub-central districts (1-5 km far from the city centre) experienced mixed patterns of population growth and stability. These results confirm the relevance of local-scale policies managing urban renewal and rehabilitation and promoting metropolitan expansion in a spatially-coordinated manner.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a New Cycle: Short-Term Population Dynamics, Gentrification, and Re-Urbanization of Milan (Italy)

2018

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“…Walford & Kurek, 2016). On the one hand, population redistribution over larger metropolitan regions is the result of a complex interplay between regional-scale (migration balance) and local-scale (natural balance) processes (Colantoni et al, 2016;Duvernoy, Zambon, Sateriano, & Salvati, 2018;Morelli, Rontos, & Salvati, 2014), making predictions of population trends particularly volatile at spatially disaggregated levels (Hofmann & Hohmeyer, 2013;Kreyenfeld et al, 2012;Simou & Koutsogeorgou, 2014). On the other hand, the combination of internal movements, reduced international migration, declining residential mobility, and very low fertility justify a rethinking of postcrisis policy strategies toward sustainable urbanisation and polycentric development, outlining the importance of measures to improve the demographic stability and attractiveness of regions more exposed to economic crisis (Dyson, 2011;Lerch, 2014;Stockdale, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bridging the divide: Demographic dynamics and urban–rural polarities during economic expansion and recession in Greece

Salvati

2019

Population Space and Place

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Demographic processes such as international migration, internal rural–urban movements, and short‐range residential mobility are increasingly driven by economic cycles. To assess how economic downturns have influenced demographic dynamics across regions in Greece—perhaps the European country most affected by the 2007 recession—the present study investigates spatial patterns of population increase and decline (2002–2017) in 51 prefectures, evaluating the contribution of natural balance (births minus deaths) and migration to total population growth during economic expansion (2002–2009) and recession (2010–2017). Population increased during economic expansion in semicentral regions with medium‐size urban centres, upper economic functions (university and international airport), and road infrastructures. Although natural balance was positive in almost all prefectures, migration contributed the most to population growth during 2002–2009. A generalised population decline was observed during recession, except in coastal areas specialised in tourism, the only regions still attracting migratory flows and maintaining a slightly positive natural balance. The largest urban areas (Athens, Salonika) experienced the highest rate of population decline, thanks to accelerated emigration and a moderately negative natural balance. Population dynamics during economic expansion contributed to increase a traditional density gap between urban and rural areas. Conversely, population dynamics during recession led to a spatial redistribution of population, reducing the gap between urban areas and rural, tourism‐specialised coastal districts. Evidence in our study supports a need for further investigation into the role of economic downturns in future population redistribution processes, specifically “shrinking” regions.

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“…Evidence from previous studies (Gargiulo Morelli et al, 2014) dealing with the ULC model in other Mediterranean cities have shown the utility of multivariate statistics to provide a summary analysis of demographic changes along the different urban phases. Thus, a principal components analysis (PCA) was applied to the proportion of the eight age classes in the total population observed in each spatial unit separately for 5 years (1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, and 2011), to provide a detailed outlook of long-term dynamics in the demographic structure of resident population and to link the observed dynamics to the different phases of the ULC model observed The demographic indexes and the ancillary variables described earlier were used as supplementary variables in the PCA.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

In-Between Stability and Subtle Changes: Urban Growth, Population Structure, and the City Life Cycle in Rome

Salvati¹,

Carlucci

2014

Popul. Space Place

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This study analyses the redistribution (1871-2011) of population along the urban gradient in Rome, Italy, in the light of the urban life cycle theory, together with an in-depth analysis of changes in population structure by age . Results identify (i) a typical urbanisation phase until 1971, (ii) a phase of rapid suburbanisation between 1971 and 1991 slowing down in the following 10 years, and (iii) a phase of re-urbanisation in the last 10 years. Changes in the spatial distribution of population indicators highlight moderate rearrangements determining a more balanced age structure during the suburbanisation phase and demographically polarised settlements during the re-urbanisation phase. On the basis of peculiar population dynamics found in the study area, the analysis performed brings useful insights on the debate over the future development of large Mediterranean cities.

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Between suburbanisation and re-urbanisation: revisiting the urban life cycle in a Mediterranean compact city

Cited by 131 publications

References 32 publications

Toward a New Cycle: Short-Term Population Dynamics, Gentrification, and Re-Urbanization of Milan (Italy)

Toward a New Cycle: Short-Term Population Dynamics, Gentrification, and Re-Urbanization of Milan (Italy)

Bridging the divide: Demographic dynamics and urban–rural polarities during economic expansion and recession in Greece

In-Between Stability and Subtle Changes: Urban Growth, Population Structure, and the City Life Cycle in Rome

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