Bridging the divide: Demographic dynamics and urban–rural polarities during economic expansion and recession in Greece

Abstract

Demographic processes such as international migration, internal rural–urban movements, and short‐range residential mobility are increasingly driven by economic cycles. To assess how economic downturns have influenced demographic dynamics across regions in Greece—perhaps the European country most affected by the 2007 recession—the present study investigates spatial patterns of population increase and decline (2002–2017) in 51 prefectures, evaluating the contribution of natural balance (births minus deaths) and migration to total population growth during economic expansion (2002–2009) and recession (2010–2017). Population increased during economic expansion in semicentral regions with medium‐size urban centres, upper economic functions (university and international airport), and road infrastructures. Although natural balance was positive in almost all prefectures, migration contributed the most to population growth during 2002–2009. A generalised population decline was observed during recession, except in coastal areas specialised in tourism, the only regions still attracting migratory flows and maintaining a slightly positive natural balance. The largest urban areas (Athens, Salonika) experienced the highest rate of population decline, thanks to accelerated emigration and a moderately negative natural balance. Population dynamics during economic expansion contributed to increase a traditional density gap between urban and rural areas. Conversely, population dynamics during recession led to a spatial redistribution of population, reducing the gap between urban areas and rural, tourism‐specialised coastal districts. Evidence in our study supports a need for further investigation into the role of economic downturns in future population redistribution processes, specifically “shrinking” regions.

Socio-Ecological Perceptions of Wildfire Management and Effects in Greece

“…By contrast, prior to large-scale, postwar-era land abandonment [8,9], fire was widely employed by local populations to clear forests of excessive vegetation and noxious weeds, the absence of which has caused forest encroachment into formerly agricultural lands [10,11]. The wildfire problem in Greece has been exacerbated by changing demographic trends and the economic environment, which have transformed the Greek landscape [12][13][14]. More specifically, land ownership is highly fragmented [15], the wildland-urban interface (WUI) is rapidly expanding, and land abandonment is widespread [16][17][18].…”

Envisaging the Intrinsic Departure from Zipf’s Law as an Indicator of Economic Concentration along Urban–Rural Gradients

“…We studied the population hierarchy in Greece (nearly 130,000 km 2 ) taken as a representative example of social and economic structures typical of peripheral and internally centralized countries in South-Eastern Europe [69]. Greek economy displays an evident legacy with tourism, traditional industries (including construction), the dominance of basic services (commerce, public administration, and real estate), and extensive agricultural systems [5].…”

Modelling population shifts to the rural: resilience, attractiveness and revitalization issues in the era of crisis

“…Settlements with a population of more than 100,000 in Attica and Thessaloniki recorded a signifi cant population decline (on average 1.3%) mostly due to emigration and negative natural balance (Salvati, 2019). Empirical fi ndings of the last two censuses address the urban population dynamics however a trend of urban shrinkage is emerging, gaining increasing interest as it focuses on the two largest Greek regions (Manika and Anastasiou, 2015).…”

“…Empirical fi ndings of the last two censuses address the urban population dynamics however a trend of urban shrinkage is emerging, gaining increasing interest as it focuses on the two largest Greek regions (Manika and Anastasiou, 2015). In the NUTS-2 level, from 31/12/2009 till the last census date (2011), the migration balance in Attica and Central Macedonia (regions that include Athens and Thessaloniki) is negative, whereas all the rest, especially the insular (Salvati, 2019), have a slightly positive or clearly positive impact (Duquenne, 2014).…”