Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession

Hobijn, Bart; Şahin, Ayşegül

doi:10.1057/imfer.2013.18

Cited by 42 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Bouvet (2012), ECB (2002), European Commission (2011b) and Hobijn and Sahin (2013)), most studies are country specific, in part due to the lack of long and comparable cross-country vacancy series. 2 Our reliance on the European Commission's survey of employers' perceptions of labour shortages in manufacturing permits a disaggregated cross-country approach incorporating all euro area economies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants

2016

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This paper analyses euro area Beveridge curves at the euro area aggregate and country level over the past 25 years. Using an autoregressive distributed lag model, we find a significant outward shift and flattening of the euro area Beveridge curve since the onset of the crisis, but considerable heterogeneity at country level. We test for factors underlying these developments using the local projection method of Jordà (Am Econ Rev 95(1): 2005). Skill mismatch and high shares of construction workers, as well as high home ownership rates appear strong determinants of the outward shifts in Beveridge curves. Higher female participation rates mitigate these effects. JEL Classification: J62, J63, E24, E32

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants

2016

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“…Even the probability of a career change for those with unemployment spells longer than two quarters declined during the Great Recession. 17 This contradicts the common perception, as expressed in Jaimovich and Siu (2014), that recessions are times of accelerated involuntary structural transformation. During such times a large number of workers supposedly gets displaced from jobs that will never come back and thus are forced to look for and take jobs in sectors and occupations different from those they worked in before.…”

Section: Reasons For Career Changementioning

confidence: 94%

The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K

Carillo-Tudela¹,

Hobijn²,

She³

et al. 2014

ERWP

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Using quarterly data for the U.K. from 1993 through 2012, we document that in economic downturns a smaller fraction of unemployed workers change their career when starting a new job. Moreover, the proportion of total hires that involves a career change for the worker also drops in recessions. Together with a simultaneous drop in overall turnover, this implies that the number of career changes declines during recessions. These results indicate that recessions are times of subdued reallocation rather than of accelerated and involuntary structural transformation. We back this interpretation up with evidence on who changes careers, which industries and occupations they come from and go to, and at which wage gains.

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“…As noted above, the rightward shift of the Beveridge curve can be interpreted as a decline in matching efficiency; this shift has been widely noted and examined-for example, by Diamond (2013), Hobijn and Sahin (2013) and Dickens and Triest (2012). Further evidence of a decline in matching efficiency in the United States is provided by Lubik (2013) and Gregory et al Furlanetto and Groshenny (2016) find that decreases in efficiency led to higher unemployment as well as a higher natural rate of unemployment in the Great Recession.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model

Craighead

2018

Economic Inquiry

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This paper provides a simple, tractable way of incorporating "hysteresis," in which persistent unemployment takes on structural characteristics, into a macroeconomic model. Hysteresis is modeled as deterioration in labor market matching efficiency as the average duration of unemployment increases. This is embedded in a basic New Keynesian macro model. A decline in labor market matching efficiency would be consistent with the observed rightward shift of the Beveridge curve since the [2007][2008][2009] recession. Hysteresis is shown to lead to larger and more persistent responses of the unemployment rate and unemployment duration to productivity, intertemporal preference, and monetary shocks. Hysteresis also generates an increase in the natural rate of unemployment. (JEL E24, J64, E32)

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Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession

Cited by 42 publications

References 47 publications

Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants

Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants

The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K

Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model

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