Key uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle projections revolve around the timing, direction, and magnitude of the carbon cycle feedback to climate change. This is especially true in carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems, where permafrost soils contain roughly one third of the world's soil carbon stocks, which are likely vulnerable to loss. Using an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models that reflect recent changes in the conceptual understanding of factors responsible for soil carbon persistence, we quantify potential soil carbon responses under two representative climate change scenarios. Our results illustrate that models disagree on the sign and magnitude of global soil changes through 2100, with disagreements primarily driven by divergent responses of Arctic systems. These results largely reflect different assumptions about the nature of soil carbon persistence and vulnerabilities, underscoring the challenges associated with setting allowable greenhouse gas emission targets that will limit global warming to 1.5°C.Plain Language Summary Soils store carbon, lots of carbon. Because of these large carbon stocks, exchanges of carbon dioxide between soils and the atmosphere are large, and the potential responses of soil carbon stocks and fluxes to projected changes in climate are uncertain. The understanding of factors responsible for the persistence of these vast soil carbon stores has changed dramatically, and models need to widely implement these new ideas. Here we evaluate three models that make different assumptions about factors responsible for persistence of carbon in soils. Our results show that although the different model formulations produce similar estimates for initial soil carbon stocks, they show large spread in the fate of soil carbon under projected changes in soil temperature, moisture, and plant growth through the end of this century. These results highlight that greater attention is needed to develop and test model formulations that are consistent with observations and understanding-especially in the Arctic which has large soil carbon stores that are likely to experience rapid change in upcoming decades.