Beyond El Niño: Unsung climate modes drive African floods

Ficchì, Andrea; Cloke, Hannah; Neves, Cláudia; Woolnough, Steven J.; Pérez, Erin Coughlan de; Zsótér, Ervin; Pinto, Izidine; Meque, Arlindo; Stephens, Elisabeth

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100345

Cited by 17 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…The ENSO is a major mode of inter‐annual meteorological variability, with significant impacts on the African climate (Ficchi et al, 2021; Joly & Voldoire, 2009; Nicholson, 2017). The positive and negative phases of ENSO, El Niño and La Niña respectively, describe changes in the ocean and atmosphere over the tropical Pacific Ocean.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing the variability and meteorological drivers of wind power and solar power generation over Africa

Bloomfield

Wainwright

Mitchell

2022

Meteorological Applications

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Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) has the lowest energy access rates in the world, which poses a key barrier to power system development. Deployment of renewables, including wind and solar power, will play a key role in expanding electricity supply across SSA: distributed generation (enabling access for remote communities), cost‐effectiveness and low emissions are key advantages. However, renewable generation is weather dependent; therefore, including more renewables increases the amount of meteorologically driven variability in the power system. Two countries in SSA are chosen for detailed investigation of this meteorologically driven variability: Senegal in West Africa and Kenya in East Africa. These are chosen due to being areas of dense population, where there is operational wind and solar power, and plans for regional expansion. In Senegal, solar generation is fairly consistent throughout the year, while wind generation exhibits strong seasonality, with a peak in the boreal spring. Low wind and solar power generation days during the boreal summer are found to be related to the passage of African Easterly Waves. Over Kenya, both wind and solar generation exhibit seasonal variability, with wind generation peaking during boreal autumn, and solar generation at a minimum during boreal summer. Inter‐annual variability in generation is greater over Kenya than over Senegal; the El Nino Southern Oscillation is found to impact wind and solar generation over Kenya. El Nino phases are associated with lower wind and solar generation in October–December over Kenya, but higher generation in July–September. This improved understanding of variability will assist system planners in designing reliable future energy systems.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing the variability and meteorological drivers of wind power and solar power generation over Africa

Bloomfield

Wainwright

Mitchell

2022

Meteorological Applications

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“…In East Africa, precipitation variability is influenced by multiple interactions between patterns of remote climate forcing, regional circulation and local geographic factors acting at local and global scales (Nicholson, 2017). At a wider scale, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as one of the primary drivers of precipitation in eastern Africa (Ficchì et al, 2021;Nicholson, 2017;Palmer et al, 2023). More research on regional and high-temporal resolution relationships between ENSO and flood/drought impacts in the present and in the past is increasingly needed (Ficchì et al, 2021;Ward et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fifty-year seasonal variability of East African droughts and floods recorded in Central Afar lake sediments (Ethiopia) and their connections with ENSO

Mologni,

Revel,

Chaumillon

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Understanding past and present hydro-system feedbacks to global ocean-atmospheric interactions represents one of the main challenges to preventing droughts, extreme events and related human catastrophes in the face of global warming, especially in arid and semiarid environments. In eastern Africa, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as one of the primary drivers of precipitation variability affecting water availability. However, the northern East African Rift System (EARS) still suffers from ENSO climate teleconnection and the underrepresentation of predictive models because of the scarcity of local-to-regional historical or palaeo-data. In this paper, we provide a 50-year seasonal flood/drought chronicle of the Awash River catchment from the study of laminated sediment from Gemeri and Afambo lakes (Central Afar region, Ethiopia), with the aim of reconstructing the magnitude of regional hydro-climatic events. Pluri-centimetric micro-laminated lithogenic facies alternating with pluri-millimetric carbonate-enriched facies are investigated in both lakes. We couple dating methods including radiocarbon, short-lived radionuclides, palaeomagnetic field variations and varve counting on both lake deposits to build a high-resolution age model and to discuss the regional hydro-sedimentary dynamics of the Awash River over the last ~700 years, with a focus on the last fifty years. Using a multiproxy approach, we observe that following a multi-centennial enhanced hydrological period, the two lakes experienced a gradual decrease in river load inflow since 1979 CE, attaining extreme drought and high evaporative conditions between 1991 and 1997 CE. In 2014, the construction of a dam and the improvement of agricultural hydraulic management in the lower Awash River plain impacted the erodibility of local soils and the hydro-sedimentary balance of the lake basins, as evidenced by a disproportionate sediment accumulation rate. Comparison of our quantitative reconstruction with i) lake water surface evolution expressed in Km2, ii) the interannual Awash River flow rates expressed in mm/yr, and iii) the El Niño 3.4 model highlights the intermittent connections between ENSO SST anomalies, regional droughts and hydrological conditions in the northern EARS.

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“…Current climate change models for African semi-arid and arid drylands predicted erratic weather patterns marked by increased risk of seasonal floods and droughts that would undermine food security [ [1] , [2] , [3] , [4] , [5] , [6] ] (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). Summers with short outburst of high intensity rainfalls and prolonged high temperatures with dry spells extending into the winter season are a major challenge to sustainable management of farmlands water-balance and hydrology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing changes in land use practices and livelihoods in the Bhungroo irrigation technology Volta basin piloted sites, West Mamprusi District, Ghana

Nkpeebo¹,

Mavimbela²

2023

Heliyon

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Beyond El Niño: Unsung climate modes drive African floods

Cited by 17 publications

References 63 publications

Characterizing the variability and meteorological drivers of wind power and solar power generation over Africa

Characterizing the variability and meteorological drivers of wind power and solar power generation over Africa

Fifty-year seasonal variability of East African droughts and floods recorded in Central Afar lake sediments (Ethiopia) and their connections with ENSO

Analyzing changes in land use practices and livelihoods in the Bhungroo irrigation technology Volta basin piloted sites, West Mamprusi District, Ghana

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