Bioeconomic Modelling of Raccoon Rabies Spread Management Impacts in Quebec, Canada

Abstract

Beginning in 2006, point infection control operations and aerial distribution of oral rabies vaccines along the US border were performed in Quebec, Canada, to control the potential spread of raccoon rabies. A benefit-cost analysis assessed the economic efficiency of this rabies control programme into the future. In this study, a mathematical simulation model was used to determine the potential spread of raccoon rabies from the 2006 index case, and incidence rates of human post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), animal testing and human exposure investigations were calculated. Benefits were calculated as the potential savings from reduced numbers of human PEP, animal testing and human exposure investigations owing to control, which ranged from $47 million to $53 million. Programme cost scenarios were based on projections of total expenditures, which ranged from $33 million to $49 million. Economic efficiency was indicated for approximately half of the modelled scenarios, with the greatest benefit-cost ratios resulting from reduced future programme costs.

Management and modeling approaches for controlling raccoon rabies: The road to elimination

“…Regardless of the strategy used, all successful options will stress economic viability for the protection of human and animal health, a reality that cannot be ignored, even in a theoretical discussion [143, 144]. Kemere et al [145] estimated that the maintenance of a large scale ORV barrier to prevent the westward spread of raccoon rabies was economically beneficial in every cost and spread scenario considered.…”

“…Kemere et al [145] estimated that the maintenance of a large scale ORV barrier to prevent the westward spread of raccoon rabies was economically beneficial in every cost and spread scenario considered. Shwiff et al [143] reported that for every dollar spent on a raccoon rabies program in Quebec, Canada, costs of $0.96 to $1.55 were prevented. Economic research also supports the case for elimination; Elser et al [146] estimated that the successful raccoon rabies elimination program on Long Island, New York will financially benefit the state by $27 million by 2019.…”

The Economics of a Successful Raccoon Rabies Elimination Program on Long Island, New York

“…Other studies examining the benefits and costs of successful elimination of rabies from an area have been conducted but have never estimated the broader macroeconomic implications [7, 13]. The domestic dog/coyote variant of rabies was eliminated from Texas by moving a zone of immunity south to the Mexican border and maintaining the zone at the U.S.-Mexico border to prevent reintroduction.…”

“…TB of the program in a specific year was calculated as where PEP est and AT est are estimates of the average rate of incidence of PEP and AT respectively per 100,000 people based on documented previous rabies epizootics in New Jersey [11], New York [12], and New Brunswick [13], and adjusted for pre-epizootic rates on Long Island. These estimates were used to determine the hypothetical case frequency that could have existed in the absence of a raccoon rabies ORV program [13]. New Jersey, New York and New Brunswick raccoon rabies epizootic PEP rates were reported as 66, 43.5, and 14; AT rates were reported as 483, 65, and 45 per 100,000 people, respectively.…”

Preparing for and responding to recent incursions of racoon rabies variant into Canada

“…If left unchecked, there is a risk that the re-emergence of racoon rabies could have a significant economic impact due to increased costs associated with the need for additional post-exposure prophylaxis. It could also have a negative effect on local wildlife populations and increase public anxiety about the possibility of people and pets contracting this fatal disease (11). Agencies must also continue to collaborate at the municipal, provincial, national, and international level in order to stay abreast of current research and the current status of rabies in neighbouring areas.…”