Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

Abstract

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of ''Economic Pressure on Land'' (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future landcover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a ''business as usual'' and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD ? debate: if restricted to forests, ''cross-biome leakage'' would severely reduce REDD ? effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD ? would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD ? remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.

Creating space for large‐scale restoration in tropical agricultural landscapes

“…This pattern of displaced land use is also evident in other countries where large-scale restoration occurred (Meyfroidt et al 2010). Yet while the threat of indirect effects of land-use change has received increasing attention in the context of agricultural expansion (eg soybeans and sugarcane in Brazil, Arima et al 2011; crossbiome leakage worldwide, Strassburg et al 2014a), it has received unexpectedly little attention in the context of large-scale ecological restoration. In fact, many legitimate concerns about potential negative consequences of increased competition for land from restoration projects are largely based on anecdotal evidence (Barr and Sayer 2012) and very little spatially explicit information is available on the potential for conflicts over land between agriculture and restoration.…”

“…Yet while the threat of indirect effects of land‐use change has received increasing attention in the context of agricultural expansion (eg soybeans and sugarcane in Brazil, Arima et al . 2011; cross‐biome leakage worldwide, Strassburg et al . 2014a), it has received unexpectedly little attention in the context of large‐scale ecological restoration.…”

Intensification of cattle ranching production systems: socioeconomic and environmental synergies and risks in Brazil

“…A mechanism of economic incentives to farmers needs to be established as a buffer against a rebound toward deforestation in the likely scenario of economic conditions driving toward more intensive and sustainable livestock production systems globally (Strassburg et al, 2014b). Combined with a landscape approach (DeFries and Rosenzweig, 2010), sustainable pastureland intensification can facilitate the achievement of social, economic and environmental objectives.…”

The Effects of Gliricidia-Derived Biochar on Sequential Maize and Bean Farming

“…Agriculture contributes to food security, job creation and economic growth, yet it can also lead to loss and degradation of natural ecosystems [1,2]. Around the world, smallholder farmers…”