Biotechnology versus agroecology: Entrenchments and surprise at a 2030 forecast scenario workshop

Schneider, Michael; Gill, Bernhard

doi:10.1093/scipol/scv021

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…A brief introduction to CIB is given in Supplement S1. Initially, CIB was developed and used to construct future scenarios [58][59][60][61][62][63]. However, CIB also proved useful for qualitative forms of systems analysis [64,65], and recently, CIB has been transferred to the realm of policy design [52].…”

Section: Cib For Policy Design-assessing Consistency and Synergy Of P...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing Goal Conflicts: New Policy Mixes for Commercial Land Use Management

Kosow

Wassermann

Bartke

et al. 2022

Land

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Commercial land use management that focuses on a future-oriented urban and regional development must address multiple goals. Effective policy mixes need to simultaneously (1) improve city-regional and inter-municipal cooperation, (2) reduce land take, and (3) assure the long-term economic development of a region. Using the Northern Black Forest in Germany as a case study, we brought together planning and land use research with public policy analysis. We applied cross-impact balances (CIB) to build and analyze a participatory policy-interaction model. Together with a group of 12 experts, we selected effective individual measures to reach each of the three goals and analyzed their interactions. We then assessed the current policy mix and designed alternative policy mixes. The results demonstrate that current approaches to commercial land use management present internal contradictions and generate only little synergies. Implementing innovative measures on a stand-alone basis runs the risk of not being sufficiently effective. In particular, the current practice of competing for municipal marketing and planning of commercial sites has inhibiting effects. We identified alternative policy mixes that achieve all three goals, avoid trade-offs, and generate significant synergy effects. Our results point towards a more coherent and sustainable city-regional (commercial) land-use governance.

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Section: Cib For Policy Design-assessing Consistency and Synergy Of P...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing Goal Conflicts: New Policy Mixes for Commercial Land Use Management

Kosow

Wassermann

Bartke

et al. 2022

Land

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“…Enriching this method with motifs from cross-impact analysis (CIA, [57]) results in a method capable of evaluating qualitative impact networks in a simple and transparent way. As a general purpose qualitative systems analysis tool, CIB has been applied in various research fields, including biotechnology [58], waste (e.g. Ref.…”

Section: The Concept Of Context Scenarios and The Construction Of Socmentioning

confidence: 99%

Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios

Weimer-Jehle

Buchgeister

Hauser

et al. 2016

Energy

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a b s t r a c tModel-based energy scenarios are a widely used tool for supporting economic and political decision makers. The results of energy modeling and the conclusions deduced therefrom, however, depend on the model input data derived from framework assumptions about future developments in the embedding society, which are deeply uncertain in the long term. The challenge to deal with this 'context uncertainty' in a systematic and comprehensive manner has only recently started to attract intensified attention in energy research; the search for appropriate methods is ongoing. This paper proposes a new concept for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios, which combines familiar environmental modeling approaches with new developments in qualitative scenario methodology, and demonstrates the possible application of the concept in model-based energy scenario construction.

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Data in CIB

Weimer-Jehle

2023

Contributions to Management Science

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Biotechnology versus agroecology: Entrenchments and surprise at a 2030 forecast scenario workshop

Cited by 8 publications

References 18 publications

Addressing Goal Conflicts: New Policy Mixes for Commercial Land Use Management

Addressing Goal Conflicts: New Policy Mixes for Commercial Land Use Management

Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios

Data in CIB

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