Birth Seasonality in Present-Day Italy, 1993–2005

Manfredini, Matteo

doi:10.1007/s10745-009-9221-x

Cited by 9 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Furthermore, upon analyzing birth seasonality in South Africa, Lam and Myron (1996) were unable to confirm their expectation that a country located on the southern hemisphere should be characterized by a specular model of seasonality with respect to one localized at the same longitude but in the northern hemisphere. Manfredini (2009) replicated the empirical exercise carried out by Lam and Myron (1996) using Italian data. He concluded that extreme climatic conditions (both heat and cold) can influence conceptions and thus produce a negative effect on the number of births nine months later.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Seasonality of livebirths and climatic factors in Italian regions (1863-1933)

Ruiu¹,

Breschi²

2017

hlcs

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Birth seasonality is a phenomenon that characterizes almost all the populations of the world. In spite of this, the causes underlying these seasonal fluctuations represent an as yet unsolved puzzle. Two main theoretical approaches have been proposed to explain birth seasonality. The first encompasses a social explanation and emphasizes the role of social, economic and cultural factors in determining the optimal moment (from a social perspective) for conception (e.g., according to the cycle of agricultural workload, religious festivity, marriage seasonality, etc.). The second theoretical approach encompasses an environmental explanation and focuses on the role that climatic factors (e.g., temperature, rainfall, light intensity, etc.) play in determining the optimal moment of conception from a biological perspective. Our paper may be collocated in the latter strand of the literature. The aim is to investigate the effects of temperature on conceptions, and subsequently on the seasonality of livebirths, while controlling for a possible social confounding effect, i.e. the seasonal pattern of marriage. To achieve this end, we empirically investigate the role of temperature as well as that of marriage seasonality in Italian regions for the period stretching from the Italian unification to the eve of World War II. We find that extreme temperatures (both cold and hot) negatively affect the number of births. At the same time, marriage seasonality also seems to be an important explicative factor of the seasonal fluctuation of live births.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Seasonality of livebirths and climatic factors in Italian regions (1863-1933)

Ruiu¹,

Breschi²

2017

hlcs

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“…Barber (2002) supports the hypothesis that these factors are important, even after controlling for societal variables, as the total fertility rate in countries at lower latitudes is much higher than it is at higher latitudes, and because fertility peaks occur after mild winter temperatures, whereas valleys occur after warm or cold winters. Manfredini's (2009) results also indicate that temperature and photoperiod may continue to affect fertility in present-day Italy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 65%

Exploring the Peaks and Valleys in the Number of Births in Portugal

Caleiro

2009

Hum Ecol

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In spite of the remarkable downward trend in fertility that characterizes Portugal, birth seasonality is still evident. A time series analysis of the data shows that, in general, May and September are months where more births take place and that December and February are the months with the lowest figures. In particular, the September peak in births, which is the most remarkable result, is shown to be related to end-of-year (economic) expectations.

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“…Birth amplitude tends to decline over time, as a result of increased development [31]–[33]. In SSA higher socio-economic status, improved housing and other indicators of wealth are associated with lower birth seasonality; these factors appear to shield populations from the influence of birth seasonality drivers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Birth Seasonality on Dynamics of Acute Immunizing Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa

2013

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We analyze the impact of birth seasonality (seasonal oscillations in the birth rate) on the dynamics of acute, immunizing childhood infectious diseases. Previous research has explored the effect of human birth seasonality on infectious disease dynamics using parameters appropriate for the developed world. We build on this work by including in our analysis an extended range of baseline birth rates and amplitudes, which correspond to developing world settings. Additionally, our analysis accounts for seasonal forcing both in births and contact rates. We focus in particular on the dynamics of measles. In the absence of seasonal transmission rates or stochastic forcing, for typical measles epidemiological parameters, birth seasonality induces either annual or biennial epidemics. Changes in the magnitude of the birth fluctuations (birth amplitude) can induce significant changes in the size of the epidemic peaks, but have little impact on timing of disease epidemics within the year. In contrast, changes to the birth seasonality phase (location of the peak in birth amplitude within the year) significantly influence the timing of the epidemics. In the presence of seasonality in contact rates, at relatively low birth rates (20 per 1000), birth amplitude has little impact on the dynamics but does have an impact on the magnitude and timing of the epidemics. However, as the mean birth rate increases, both birth amplitude and phase play an important role in driving the dynamics of the epidemic. There are stronger effects at higher birth rates.

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Birth Seasonality in Present-Day Italy, 1993–2005

Cited by 9 publications

References 28 publications

Seasonality of livebirths and climatic factors in Italian regions (1863-1933)

Seasonality of livebirths and climatic factors in Italian regions (1863-1933)

Exploring the Peaks and Valleys in the Number of Births in Portugal

Impact of Birth Seasonality on Dynamics of Acute Immunizing Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa

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