Black swans to grey swans: revealing the uncertainty

Masys, Anthony J.

doi:10.1108/09653561211234507

Cited by 61 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…It is important to assess whether a project or system assumption could fail to hold in a given way, and focus on the contributing factors and potential scenarios that could lead to the failure of the various assumptions. Masys (2012) corroborated the need to use lessons learned for nonlinear thinking through red teaming and scenario planning exercises. The red teaming process is used to challenge all aspects of a project team's plans and assumptions.…”

Section: Question 11 Have We Captured the Low-likelihood High-consementioning

confidence: 93%

Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Risk Identification: Practitioner Checklist for the Aerospace Sector

Emmons¹,

Mazzuchi²,

Sarkani³

et al. 2018

Defense ARJ

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This research contributes an operational checklist for mitigating cognitive biases in the aerospace sector risk management process. The Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist includes steps forgrounding the risk identification and evaluation activities in past project experiences through historical data, and emphasizes the importance of incorporating multiple methods and perspectives to guard against optimism and a singular project instantiation-focused view. The authors developed a survey to elicit subject matter expert judgment on the value of the checklist to support its use in government and industry as a risk management tool. The survey also provided insights on bias mitigation strategies and lessons learned. This checklist addresses the deficiency in the literature in providing operational steps for the practitioner to recognize and implement strategies for bias reduction in risk management in the aerospace sector. //doi.org/10.22594/dau.16-770.25 This article and its accompanying research contribute an operational Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist for cognitive bias mitigation in risk management for the aerospace sector. The checklist described herein offers a practical and implementable project management framework to help reduce biases in the aerospace sector and redress the cognitive limitations in the risk identification and analysis process. Detailed discussion focuses on the development of strategies targeted at reducing four cognitive biases and their influence on the risk identification process, and to the development and validation of the practitioner checklist. DOI: https: Background and LiteratureThe authors' research began with a review of the literature, which covered the areas of risk management, cognitive biases, and bias enabling conditions. The biases of optimism, planning fallacy, anchoring, and ambiguity effect were deemed particularly influential to the risk identification and evaluation processes. The authors reviewed and synthesized the bias mitigation literature and developed the initial bias reduction checklist. After the development of the initial checklist, they designed and administered the survey to seek feedback and validation of the checklist as a risk management tool. A Likert-scale instrument was used for the survey, which is an appropriate instrument for measuring attitudes and beliefs. The answers to the open-ended questions of the survey provided insights, lessons learned, as well as other measures that are used by practitioners to reduce biases. The survey design, data collection, and analysis followed the academic literature guidelines for garnering attitudes and feedback on the effectiveness of the checklist as a risk management tool.Nonetheless, the authors recognize that like any of the measurement methods in the science disciplines, the social or attitude survey method is not error-free (Fowler, 2013). The authors incorporated the feedback from both the Likert survey and the open-ended questions into the final checklis...

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Section: Question 11 Have We Captured the Low-likelihood High-consementioning

confidence: 93%

Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Risk Identification: Practitioner Checklist for the Aerospace Sector

Emmons¹,

Mazzuchi²,

Sarkani³

et al. 2018

Defense ARJ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The AFD and TRIZ go one step further and pose the question, "If I wanted to create this particular failure, how could I do it?" The power of the technique comes from the process of deliberately "inventing" failure events and scenarios [48]. See [8] for a simple application example of this method.…”

Section: Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Conceptual Foundation for Assessing and Managing Risk, Surprises and Black Swans

Aven

2017

The Illusion of Risk Control

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This chapter presents and discusses some recent advances in the risk field, linked to the conceptualisation of risk and specifically addressing unforeseen events, surprises and so-called black swans. It shows how the traditional probabilitybased perspectives on risk are extended to broader ways of thinking about risk, which give due attention to the uncertainties and also draw on ideas from inter alia the quality discourse and organisational learning (collective mindfulness and its five principles: preoccupation with failure, reluctance to simplify, sensitivity to operations, commitment to resilience and deference to expertise). The main aims of the chapter are to point to this thinking and provide some reflections on how to use it for further developing the risk assessment and risk management fields.

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“…Ove karakteristike i sam proces planiranja scenarija mogu pomoći u radu s različitim vrstama znanja, neznanja i neizvjesnosti i time rasvijetliti postojanje Crnih Labudova. Razvoj višestrukih scenarija nudi mogućnost da se istraži vjerodostojnost nekoliko različitih budućnosti identifikacijom mogućnosti, da se istraži ovisnost sustava kako bi se otkrile nenamjerne posljedice te kako bi se testirala robusnost upravljanja rizicima (Masys, 2012). Nošenje s Crnim Labudom ne bi se trebalo svesti na predviđanje, već stvaranje robusnosti protiv negativnih labudova koji se pojave te iskorištavanje pozitivnih.…”

Section: Društvo S Crnim Labudomunclassified

Bihevioralne financije i teorija „Crnog labuda“

Brajković

Peša

2017

oec

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ANITA RADMAN PEŠA docentica, Odjel za ekonomiju Sveučilište u Zadru Splitska 1, 23000 Zadar Hrvatska apesa@unizd.hr Pregledni rad UDK: 336Sažetak: Redovita pojava anomalija u konvencionalnoj ekonomiji doprinijela je formiranju i oblikovanju bihevioralnih financija. Ove su anomalije direktno ili indirektno ugrozile moderne financijske i ekonomske teorije, a temeljene su na racionalnom ponašanju i racionalnom donošenju odluka. Bihevioralne financije predstavljaju novi pristup području financija koji uzima u obzir i neke druge aspekte čovjeka, tj. investitora kao što su psihološki aspekti. Psihologija definira određene koncepte ponašanja i predrasuda koji su doprinijeli iracionalnom i često štetnom procesu donošenja odluka. Bihevioralne financije koncentriraju se na to kako individualni investitori donose odluke, to jest kako interpretiraju i reagiraju na određene informacije. Autori predstavljaju bihevioralne financije uvelike i kroz pojam Crnog Labuda kao događaja koji je nepredvidljiv, ima ozbiljne posljedice, a nakon što se dogodi ljudi daju objašnjenja koja ga čine predvidljivim. Događaji kojima se pridaje epitet Crnog Labuda je primjerice svjetska financijska kriza 2008. godine. Autori analiziraju i druge suvremene financijske teorije i kompariraju ih sa standardnim financijskim teorijama kako bi ukazali na potrebu daljnjih istraživanja iz područja financijske teorije. Ključne riječi: Financijske teorije, bihevioralne financije, Crni LabudAbstract: The regular appearance of anomalies in the conventional economy contributed to creation and shaping of behavioral finance. These anomalies directly or indirectly threatened the modern financial and economic theory, based on rational behavior and rational decision-making. Behavioral finance represents a new approach to the field of finance, which takes into account psychological aspects of human and investor's life. Psychology defines certain concepts of behavior and prejudices that have contributed to the irrational and often harmful decision-making process. The focus of behavioral finance is on how individual investors make decisions, that is, how they interpret and react to specific information. The authors also present behavioral finance through the term of Black Swan defining it as an unpredictable event with serious consequences and when such event happens, people tend to give explanations to make it predictable and explainable. Event with The Black Swan label, for example, is the global financial crisis of 2008. The authors analyze and other modern

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Black swans to grey swans: revealing the uncertainty

Cited by 61 publications

References 25 publications

Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Risk Identification: Practitioner Checklist for the Aerospace Sector

Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Risk Identification: Practitioner Checklist for the Aerospace Sector

A Conceptual Foundation for Assessing and Managing Risk, Surprises and Black Swans

Bihevioralne financije i teorija „Crnog labuda“

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