Purpose -The emergence of "black swans" represents (according to Taleb) " [y] our misunderstanding of the likelihood of surprises". The purpose of this paper is to study accidents and disasters and the inherent misunderstanding and absence of awareness associated with the existence of black swans and their complex aetiology. Red teaming and scenario planning provide a methodology to explore the uncertainties and challenge of the mental models associated with accident and disaster aetiology. Design/methodology/approach -The argument draws upon the successful application of red teaming and scenario planning in various domains noted in the literature and lessons learned from the failure to recognize black swans. An analysis of the literature illustrates how the salient characteristics of red teaming and scenario planning can be applied to the illumination of black swans to support risk, crisis and disaster management. Findings -Recognizing the uncertainty resident within the safety and security problem space opens up the notion that more than one future is potentially open. It is argued that the inherent properties of red teaming, within the context of scenario planning, facilitates an effective approach to bring risk, crisis and disaster planners/managers together to discuss their concerns and explore the factors creating uncertainty and the emergence of black swans. Originality/value -The value of red teaming (scenario planning) to challenge linear thinking and recognize the inherent uncertainty in the space of possibilities is well supported. Applied to the risk, crisis and disaster management domain, red teaming and scenario planning can provide insights into the emergence of black swans and thereby shape mitigation strategies.

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Shocks to regional, national and global systems stemming from natural hazards, acts of armed violence, terrorism and serious and organized crime have significant defence and security implications. Today, nations face an uncertain and complex security landscape in which threats impact/target the physical, social, economic and cyber domains. For example, acts of terrorism and organized crime are considered one of the greatest threats to national security. In the UK alone, the social and economic costs associated with organized crime are estimated between £20 and £40 billion per year (NCA, 2011:4).Threats to national security, such as that against critical infrastructures not only stem from man-made acts but also from natural hazards. Katrina (2005), Fukushima (2011) and Hurricane Sandy (2012) are examples that highlight the vulnerability of critical infrastructures to natural hazards and the crippling effect they have on the social and economic wellbeing of a community and a nation.With this dynamic and complex threat landscape, network analysis has emerged as a key enabler in supporting defence and security. With the advent of 'big data' and increasing processing power, network analysis can reveal insights with regards to structural and dynamic properties thereby facilitating greater understanding of complex networks, their entities, interdependencies and vulnerabilities.This poster paper introduces relevant theoretical frameworks and applications of network analysis in support of the defence and security domain. This paper reflects the body of contributions by leading researchers to an upcoming book entitled: Networks and Network Analysis for Defence and Security, Springer Publishing.