2023
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2301.05327
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Blind Judgement: Agent-Based Supreme Court Modelling With GPT

Abstract: We present a novel Transformer-based multi-agent system for simulating the judicial rulings of the 2010-2016 Supreme Court of the United States. We train nine separate models with the respective authored opinions of each supreme justice active ca. 2015 and test the resulting system on 96 real-world cases. We find our system predicts the decisions of the realworld Supreme Court with better-than-random accuracy. We further find a correlation between model accuracy with respect to individual justices and their al… Show more

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Cited by 7 publications
(7 citation statements)
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“…Recently, through extensive training on vast amounts of web data, LLMs have demonstrated an impressive capability to generate humanlike behavior. The applications of generative agents powered by LLMs range from replacing human subjects in psychological experiments (Dillion et al, 2023;Hutson, 2023), simulating voting patterns (Argyle et al, 2023), providing support for mental wellbeing (Ma et al, 2023), exploring economic behavior (Horton, 2023), predicting US Supreme Court decisions (Hamilton, 2023), assisting with research design and experiments (Boiko et al, 2023), and encoding clinical knowledge (Singhal et al, 2023). Wang et al (2023) provides a comprehensive review of recent efforts.…”
Section: Realizing the Potential Of Llms In Social Sciencesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Recently, through extensive training on vast amounts of web data, LLMs have demonstrated an impressive capability to generate humanlike behavior. The applications of generative agents powered by LLMs range from replacing human subjects in psychological experiments (Dillion et al, 2023;Hutson, 2023), simulating voting patterns (Argyle et al, 2023), providing support for mental wellbeing (Ma et al, 2023), exploring economic behavior (Horton, 2023), predicting US Supreme Court decisions (Hamilton, 2023), assisting with research design and experiments (Boiko et al, 2023), and encoding clinical knowledge (Singhal et al, 2023). Wang et al (2023) provides a comprehensive review of recent efforts.…”
Section: Realizing the Potential Of Llms In Social Sciencesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Jurisprudence: LLM-based agent can serve as aids in legal decision-making processes, facilitating judges in rendering more informed judgements [23,56]. Blind Judgement [56] employs several language models to simulate the decision-making processes of multiple judges. It gathers diverse opinions and consolidates the outcomes through a voting mechanism.…”
Section: Social Sciencementioning
confidence: 99%
“…In the voting-based cooperation, each agent can freely provide their opinions. The consensus for final decisions can be reached through a voting process [48]. The cooperation can be also reached by assigning different roles to agents through role-based cooperation [20,20,49,49,50], e.g., the UI designer is responsible for designing an interface of an application while the role of engineer is about writing the code of the software.…”
Section: Execution Enginementioning
confidence: 99%