Blood trail of expansion? Long‐term patterns of livestock depredation by wolves in Poland

Abstract

As the wolf Canis lupus populations continue to recover across Europe, livestock depredation becomes increasingly challenging for their effective conservation. We aim to (1) analyze the spatiotemporal variation in wolf attacks on livestock in relation to the landscape structure, livestock species, and the phase of wolf expansion in Poland and (2) discuss the implications for conservation and management in an expanding, protected wolf population. From 2008 to 2018, farmers reported 5499 attacks on livestock with 13,164 killed individuals, and the number of attacks increased 2.7-fold at the country scale. Sheep were among the most frequently killed livestock, and surplus killing (>2 killed individuals) was relatively common in captive deer and sheep depredation. The attacks were patchily distributed; 59% of all kills occurred in municipalities constituting 1% of the country surface. The probability and number of attacks were positively influenced by forest and pasture cover, and by the occurrence of depredation in previous years. Spatial variation and long-term dynamics in livestock depredation by wolves can be attributed to different husbandry practices and phases of wolf recovery in three regions of the country. Our results indicate that accelerating increase in depredation rates during the initial phases of wolf recovery is likely to be followed by stabilization or decrease in attacks. A detailed spatiotemporal analysis of wolf-livestock conflict can help in management decisions in areas with ongoing wolf population recovery.

Patterns of livestock loss associated with a recolonizing wolf population in Germany

“…Similar to other case studies (Harper et al, 2005;Fedyńet al, 2022;Khorozyan and Heurich, 2022), our study suggests that recolonizing and expanding wolf populations are associated with a greater frequency of reported predation events (Figures 1, 3 and 6). While such relationships between wolf recolonization and predation on livestock could be expected, we caution against generalizing this correlation.…”

“…The recovery of large carnivore populations in cultural landscapes of Europe is a remarkable wildlife conservation success story (Chapron et al, 2014;Cimatti et al, 2021), and yet presents daunting challenges for human-carnivore coexistence in agricultural landscapes (Nyhus, 2016;Pimenta et al, 2018;König et al, 2020;Linnell et al, 2020;Pettersson et al, 2021). Predation on livestock by large carnivores such as grey wolves (Canis lupus; hereafter: wolf/ wolves) represents a persistent problem both in areas recently recolonized by wolves and in those with well-established wolf populations (Ciucci and Boitani, 1998;Kaczensky, 1999;Gula, 2008;Gervasi et al, 2021a;Gervasi et al, 2021b;Fedyńet al, 2022;Khorozyan and Heurich, 2022). Predation on livestock can perpetuate or even aggravate the already predominantly negative attitudes towards wolves among parts of society (Dressel et al, 2015;Jürgens and Hacket, 2017).…”

“…However, a rich body of research indicates that wolves also prey on cattle (Bos taurus), farmed deer (e.g. fallow deer Dama dama and red deer Cervus elaphus), and other domestic mammal species (Treves et al, 2002;Musiani et al, 2003;Iliopoulos et al, 2009;Hanley et al, 2018;Pimenta et al, 2018;Fedyńet al, 2022), reflecting the wide food niche of wolves (Jedrzejewski et al, 2012). Based on the positive correlation between prey species richness and food niche breadth observed in wolves (Okarma, 1995), and assuming that an expanding wolf population encounters a greater diversity of potential prey species over time, we expected that the domestic prey spectrum would increase over time.…”

“…Another basic, yet important aspect is to assess patterns and correlates for the number of killed livestock per predation event. Wolves occasionally kill more than a single head of livestock per predation event, a phenomenon which is termed "surplus" or "mass" killing (Kruuk, 1972;Delgiudice, 1998;Fedyńet al, 2022). Identifying correlates for this wolf predation behavior is relevant to the issue of management because the financial damage is clearly linked to the number of lost livestock.…”

“…These data are often not available at large spatial scales. However, the temporal dimension of livestock loses associated with an expanding wolf population can provide important insights for reducing the frequency of livestock predation on livestock (Fedyńet al, 2022;Khorozyan and Heurich, 2022). While it is plausible that predation events scale with range expansion of wolves (Harper et al, 2005;Khorozyan and Heurich, 2022), the frequency of predation events is not always related to the relative abundance of wolves (Gervasi et al, 2021a).…”