Boom or bust? Mapping out the known unknowns of global shale gas production potential

Hilaire, Jérôme; Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.017

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…There has been a lot of debate in macroeconomics regarding the appropriate design of monetary policy in the wake of perceived asset bubbles. At the same time, researchers and policy makers in the field of energy economics have been puzzled by the high volatility of energy prices, as well as by their connection with potential bubbles in the energy sector, fueled by the increased use of advanced technology (for studies on the shale revolution or the boom in the green energy industry, see [18,27,28] or [19], to cite only a few contributions). In this paper, we tried to link the two and looked at the behavior of energy sector stocks following monetary policy shocks.…”

Section: Discussion Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monetary Policy Effects on Energy Sector Bubbles

Caraiani

Călin

2019

Energies

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We investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks, including unconventional policy measures, on the bubbles of the energy sector, for the case of the United States. We estimate a time-varying Bayesian VAR model that allows for quantifying the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices and bubbles. The energy sector is measured through the S&P Energy Index, while bubbles are measured through the difference between asset prices and the corresponding dividends for the energy sector. We find significant differences in the impact of monetary policy shocks for the aggregate economy and for the energy sector. The findings seem sensitive to the interest rate use, i.e., whether one uses the shadow interest rate or the long-term interest rate.

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Section: Discussion Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monetary Policy Effects on Energy Sector Bubbles

Caraiani

Călin

2019

Energies

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“…US supply curves provided by Hilaire et al [64] and Jacoby et al [65] report a similar quantities of shale gas to the JRC's [58] central estimate, but at a slightly higher cost. Those of Petak et al [66] fall between JRC and ETSAP-TIAM [59] estimates.…”

Section: Shale Gas Supply Curves In Previous Energy System Modelling mentioning

confidence: 93%

The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties

et al. 2017

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There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 • C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%-3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a "dash for shale gas", of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. We conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.

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“…in technology increase recovery factors and decrease extraction costs per energy unit [41]. In each case, however, the incentives to invest in technological improvements will be strongly influenced by socio-economic and political boundary conditions such as a desire for energy security or a perceived need to mitigate climate change.…”

Section: Uncertainties In the Fossil Fuel Extraction Sectormentioning

confidence: 98%

“…5 Interestingly, the assessment of supply for wind, solar and bio-energy has been related to the SRES framework and has attracted much attention [40]. 6 One major uncertainty not addressed here is the different reporting methodologies and standards of geological surveys [41]. This study assumes the national statistics to be valid, complete and consistent; it is not the purpose to challenge this data issue, but it is worthwhile to keep this uncertainty in mind.…”

Section: Uncertainties In the Fossil Fuel Extraction Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%