Percent mammographic density (PMD) is a strong marker of breast cancer risk. It may be a correlate of the rate of breast tissue aging, as proposed by Pike to explain breast cancer age-incidence. We examined longitudinal changes in PMD in 645 breast screening attendees in London, UK, in which each had between 2 and 5 screens spanning 3-12 years at ages 50-65 years and compare these to Pike's model. Within-woman PMD declined during these ages, with a slowing rate of decline. Annual rates of decline were 1.4% (95% confidence interval: 1.2-1.6), 0.7% (0.6-0.9) and 0.1% (-0.2 to 0.4) at ages 50, 57 and 64. Dense area declined similarly, but the absolute magnitude of the rate of increase of nondense area was almost double that of dense area. PMD dropped by 2.4% (1.4-3.4) on menopausal transition and increased by 2.4% (1.4-3.5) with the use of hormone therapy. Higher body mass index, greater parity and being Afro-Caribbean or South Asian ethnicities were associated with lower PMD, but did not affect rate of change of PMD at these ages. Within-woman rank correlation of PMD was 0.80 for readings taken 9 years apart. Effects of menopause and parity and the lack of effect of menarche on age-specific PMD at these ages are consistent with the predicted determinants in Pike's model. A high degree of tracking of PMD indicates that at ages 50-65 years high-risk women could be identified by a single early screen at age older than 50.Percent mammographic density (PMD), a measure of the proportion of radiodense fibroglandular tissue in the breast, is one of the strongest quantitative markers of breast cancer risk.1 Many breast cancer risk factors, such as parity, age at first birth and use of hormone therapy (HT), are determinants of PMD because of its possible intermediary causal role. However, PMD and breast cancer risk demonstrate opposite trends with age; risk increases whereas PMD decreases as women age, the latter observation having been made in both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. [2][3][4] To explain this apparent anomaly, Boyd et al. noted that the decline of PMD with age parallels that of the rate of breast tissue aging in a model proposed by Pike to explain the age-incidence curve of breast cancer. 5,6 In this model, the age-specific rate of breast tissue aging is high between menarche and age at first birth, drops slightly after pregnancies and considerably after the menopause. Breast cancer incidence rates are related to breast tissue age (i.e., the cumulative rate of breast tissue aging). However, there are few longitudinal studies of PMD to investigate the PMD-breast tissue age analogy.A greater understanding of the nature and determinants of the profile of PMD and of changes in PMD within a woman over her life-course would help to identify periods of change, the processes that might account for them and factors that influence them. Reductions in PMD have been shown to be associated with reduced breast cancer, although not consistently. 4,[7][8][9] If PMD is causally related to breast cancer, factors that ...