Brief communication: Ad hoc estimation of glacier contributions to sea-level rise from the latest glaciological observations

Zemp, Michael; Huss, Matthias; Eckert, Nicolas; Thibert, Emmanuel; Paul, Frank; Nussbaumer, Samuel U.; Gärtner‐Roer, Isabelle

doi:10.5194/tc-14-1043-2020

Cited by 21 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 25 publications

(42 reference statements)

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“…As a fraction of the typical magnitude of the surface mass balance (∼−1 m w.e. a −1 on average for the glaciers in Iceland since 1995), the non-surface mass balance ranges from 5 to 38%, largest for FIGURE 6 | Comparison of mass change rates estimated in this study and studies based on glaciological observations provided to the WGMS database (Zemp et al, 2019;Zemp et al, 2020b) and the GRACE observations (Wouters et al, 2019), with the respective estimated uncertainties. The figure shows only the period when Vatnajökull, Hofsjökull, and Langjökull have all been monitored with glaciological observations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

et al. 2020

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The volume of glaciers in Iceland (∼3,400 km3 in 2019) corresponds to about 9 mm of potential global sea level rise. In this study, observations from 98.7% of glacier covered areas in Iceland (in 2019) are used to construct a record of mass change of Icelandic glaciers since the end of the 19th century i.e. the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in Iceland. Glaciological (in situ) mass-balance measurements have been conducted on Vatnajökull, Langjökull, and Hofsjökull since the glaciological years 1991/92, 1996/97, and 1987/88, respectively. Geodetic mass balance for multiple glaciers and many periods has been estimated from reconstructed surface maps, published maps, aerial photographs, declassified spy satellite images, modern satellite stereo imagery, and airborne lidar. To estimate the maximum glacier volume at the end of the LIA, a volume–area scaling method is used based on the observed area and volume from the three largest ice caps (over 90% of total ice mass) at 5–7 different times each, in total 19 points. The combined record shows a total mass change of −540 ± 130 Gt (−4.2 ± 1.0 Gt a−1 on average) during the study period (1890/91 to 2018/19). This mass loss corresponds to 1.50 ± 0.36 mm sea level equivalent or 16 ± 4% of mass stored in Icelandic glaciers around 1890. Almost half of the total mass change occurred in 1994/95 to 2018/19, or −240 ± 20 Gt (−9.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 on average), with most rapid loss in 1994/95 to 2009/10 (mass change rate −11.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1). During the relatively warm period 1930/31–1949/50, mass loss rates were probably close to those observed since 1994, and in the colder period 1980/81–1993/94, the glaciers gained mass at a rate of 1.5 ± 1.0 Gt a−1. For other periods of this study, the glaciers were either close to equilibrium or experienced mild loss rates. For the periods of AR6 IPCC, the mass change rates are −3.1 ± 1.1 Gt a−1 for 1900/01–1989/90, −4.3 ± 1.0 Gt a−1 for 1970/71–2017/18, −8.3 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 for 1992/93–2017/18, and −7.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 for 2005/06–2017/18.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

et al. 2020

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“…We combined eight estimates of mass change from an extrapolation of local glaciological and geodetic measurements (Zemp et al, 2019a(Zemp et al, , 2020, satellite gravimetry (Wouters et al, 2019), satellite swath altimetry (Foresta et al, 2016;Jakob et al, 2020;Tepes et al, 2021), satellite differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR) (Braun et al, 2019), and satellite optical stereo images (Dussaillant et al, 2019b;Shean et al, 2020) to produce a reconciled estimate of global glacier mass changes between 1962 and 2019 and over 19 glacier regions defined in the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI Consortium, 2017) ( Fig. 2).…”

Section: Mountain Glaciersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…; ACS, Arctic Canada South (40 888 km 2 ); ALA, Alaska (86 725 km 2 ); ANT, Antarctic and subantarctic (132 867 km 2 ); CAU, Caucasus and Middle East (1307 km 2 ); CEU, Central Europe (2092 km 2 ); GRL, Greenland (89 717 km 2 ); HMA, High Mountain Asia (97 606 km 2 ); ISL, Iceland (11 059 km 2 ); NZL, New Zealand (1161 km 2 ); RUA, Russian Arctic (51 591 km 2 ); SAN, Southern Andes (29 429 km 2 ); SCA, Scandinavia (2949 km 2 ); SJM, Svalbard and Jan Mayen (33 958 km 2 ); TRP, low latitudes (2341 km 2 ); WNA, Western Canada and USA (14 524 km 2 ). (b) Glacier rate of mass change (Gt yr −1 ) in regions where estimates from different techniques are available, including satellite altimetry (Foresta et al, 2016;Jakob et al, 2020;Tepes et al, 2021), extrapolation of in situ glaciological and geodetic data (Zemp et al, 2019b(Zemp et al, , 2020, satellite gravimetry (Wouters et al, 2019), satellite InSAR (Braun et al, 2019), and satellite stereo imagery (Dussaillant et al, 2019b;Shean et al, 2020) over the period 2010-2015. The reconciled estimate (calculated as the average of the estimates available in a given region and year) is shown in grey.…”

Section: Ice Sheetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Earth's ice imbalance

et al. 2021

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Abstract. We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017. Arctic sea ice (7.6 trillion tonnes), Antarctic ice shelves (6.5 trillion tonnes), mountain glaciers (6.1 trillion tonnes), the Greenland ice sheet (3.8 trillion tonnes), the Antarctic ice sheet (2.5 trillion tonnes), and Southern Ocean sea ice (0.9 trillion tonnes) have all decreased in mass. Just over half (58 %) of the ice loss was from the Northern Hemisphere, and the remainder (42 %) was from the Southern Hemisphere. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 % since the 1990s – from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year – owing to increased losses from mountain glaciers, Antarctica, Greenland and from Antarctic ice shelves. During the same period, the loss of grounded ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and mountain glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The majority of all ice losses were driven by atmospheric melting (68 % from Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers ice shelf calving and ice sheet surface mass balance), with the remaining losses (32 % from ice sheet discharge and ice shelf thinning) being driven by oceanic melting. Altogether, these elements of the cryosphere have taken up 3.2 % of the global energy imbalance.

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“…We combined 6 estimates of mass change from an extrapolation of local glaciological and geodetic measurements (Zemp et al, 2019(Zemp et al, , 2020, satellite gravimetry (Wouters et al, 2019), satellite swath altimetry (Foresta et al, 2016;Jakob et al, 2020;Tepes et al, 2020) and satellite synthetic differential aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR) (Braun et al, 2019), to produce a reconciled estimate of global glacier mass changes between 1962 and 2019 and over 19 glacier regions defined in the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI Consortium, 2017) ( Fig. 2).…”

Section: Mountain Glaciersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review Article: Earth's ice imbalance

Slater¹,

Lawrence²,

Otosaka³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017. Arctic sea ice (7.6 trillion tonnes), Antarctic ice shelves (6.5 trillion tonnes), mountain glaciers (6.2 trillion tonnes), the Greenland ice sheet (3.8 trillion tonnes), the Antarctic ice sheet (2.5 trillion tonnes), and Southern Ocean sea ice (0.9 trillion tonnes) have all decreased in mass. Just over half (60 %) of the ice loss was from the northern hemisphere, and the remainder (40 %) was from the southern hemisphere. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 % since the 1990s – from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year – owing to increased losses from mountain glaciers, Antarctica, Greenland, and from Antarctic ice shelves. During the same period, the loss of grounded ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and mountain glaciers raised the global sea level by 35.0 ± 3.2 mm. The majority of all ice losses from were driven by atmospheric melting (68 % from Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers ice shelf calving and ice sheet surface mass balance), with the remaining losses (32 % from ice sheet discharge and ice shelf thinning) being driven by oceanic melting. Altogether, the cryosphere has taken up 3.2 % of the global energy imbalance.

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Brief communication: Ad hoc estimation of glacier contributions to sea-level rise from the latest glaciological observations

Cited by 21 publications

References 25 publications

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

Review article: Earth's ice imbalance

Review Article: Earth's ice imbalance

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