Brief communication: On direct impact probability  of landslides on vehicles

Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Cloutier, Catherine; Crosta, Giovanni B.; Lévy, Sébastien

doi:10.5194/nhess-16-995-2016

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…An extensive review of highway slope instability risk assessment systems is provided by Pantelidis (2011), including several qualitative and semi-quantitative methods (by semiquantitative we refer to the methodologies that assess the hazard in terms of numerical scores). A well-known example of semi-quantitative methods is the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (Pierson and Van Vickle, 1993) recommended by the FHWA (Federal Highway Administration of the United States), which was later adapted by Budetta (2004) specifically for rockfall risk along roads.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities in the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country

Mavrouli

Corominas

Ibarbia³

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Transportation corridors such as roadways are often subjected to both natural instability and cut-slope failures, with substantial physical damage to the road infrastructure and threats to the circulating vehicles and passengers. In the early 2000s, the Gipuzkoa Provincial Council of the Basque Country in Spain noted the need for assessing the risk related to the geotechnical hazards of its road network, in order to assess and monitor their safety for road users. The quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was selected as a tool for comparing the risk of different hazards on an objective basis. Few examples of multi-hazard risk assessment along transportation corridors exist. The methodology presented here consists of the calculation of risk, in terms of probability of failure and its respective consequences, and it was applied to 84 selected points of risk (PoR) over the entire road network managed by the Gipuzkoa Provincial Council. The types of encountered slope instabilities that are examined are rockfalls, retaining-wall failures, and slow-moving landslides. The proposed methodology includes the calculation of the probability of failure for each hazard based on an extensive collection of field data, and its association with the expected consequences. Instrumentation data from load cells and inclinometers were used for the anchored walls and the slow-moving landslides, respectively. The expected road damage was assessed for each hazard level in terms of a fixed unit cost (UC). The results indicate that the risk can be comparable for the different hazards. A total of 21 % of the PoR in the study area were found to be of very high risk.

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confidence: 99%

Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities in the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country

Mavrouli

Corominas

Ibarbia³

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…In what follows, we will consider the event passage frequency. The passage frequency can be determined either for a location whose width is the width of the element at risk [35] plus the width of a rock fragment if a lumped mass model is used for rockfall modelling, or for a wider area of interest [62,64]. In this case, the hazard is homogenized, and the more critical locations may not be detected.…”

Section: Diffuse Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For a moving element at risk (person or vehicle), it is the proportion of the time when it is in the considered location. For a vehicle moving perpendicularly to the trajectory of the block, the exposure is [57,62]…”

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confidence: 99%

Definitions and Concepts for Quantitative Rockfall Hazard and Risk Analysis

et al. 2021

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There is an increasing need for quantitative rockfall hazard and risk assessment that requires a precise definition of the terms and concepts used for this particular type of landslide. This paper suggests using terms that appear to be the most logic and explicit as possible and describes methods to derive some of the main hazards and risk descriptors. The terms and concepts presented concern the rockfall process (failure, propagation, fragmentation, modelling) and the hazard and risk descriptors, distinguishing the cases of localized and diffuse hazards. For a localized hazard, the failure probability of the considered rock compartment in a given period of time has to be assessed, and the probability for a given element at risk to be impacted with a given energy must be derived combining the failure probability, the reach probability, and the exposure of the element. For a diffuse hazard that is characterized by a failure frequency, the number of rockfalls reaching the element at risk per unit of time and with a given energy (passage frequency) can be derived. This frequency is relevant for risk assessment when the element at risk can be damaged several times. If it is not replaced, the probability that it is impacted by at least one rockfall is more relevant.

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“…The procedure for evaluating exposure of elements moving along linear features has long been known, but only a few practical examples have been recently published for its calculation (Roberds, 2005;Ferlisi et al, 2012, Nicolet et al, 2016Macciotta et al 2016). It is usually performed for infrastructures such as roads, railways and it is applicable to trail paths as well.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The encounter probability or exposure P (T │ X) has to consider both the width of the falling mass (Wr) and the length of the trail (lp) occupied by the person or group of persons (Nicolet et al 2016). It is calculated with equation [2], whose parameters are shown in Figure 1.…”

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confidence: 99%

Rockfall analysis : failure, fragmentation and propagation characterization : a fractal fragmentation of rockfalls

Carulla¹

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The present thesis aims at the analysis of the fragmentation of rockfalls. The fragmentation is a complex phenomenon poorly understood with a lack of tools to reproduce it on rockfall simulators. The effect of fragmentation on the hazard assessment and mapping is significant and it may substantially modify the risk scenario. The analysis of the empirical data acquired in a series of inventoried natural rockfalls and real-scale drop tests, clearly suggests that fragmentation displays a fractal behavior. Based on these observations, a fractal fragmentation model is proposed heare, adapting the basics of Perfect (1997) to the specific case of rockfalls. An important development of the thesis presented is the procedure to characterize the rockfall mass before and after the fragmentation, which include the methodology to measure the block size distributions of the deposit, the use of Unmaned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) equipped with digital camera digital, and the photogrammetric analysis to reconstruct the detached block volumes based on 3D models and discrete joint characterization. The block size distributions before and after the fragmentation are related with the proposed model, using the real data to calibrate the model parameters by back analysis. The methodologies and the model proposed contribute to the understanding of the fragmentation phenomenon and have the capability to reproduce the entire block size distribution and the calculation of the number and volume of the fragments. They also allow the quantification of the areas of the fresh faces created due to breakage, which may be related to the required fragmentation energy. The final goal of the ongoing research is the implementation of fragmentation behavior on a rockfall simulator which is currently under developed within the Rockmodels project (https://rockmodels.upc.edu/es), and modify the criteria to calculate the probability of impact used in hazard mapping and in quantitative risk assessment studies. The results of the fragmentation model may also contribute to the analysis of the efficiency and to the design of the rockfall protection systems. La present tesis es centra en el fenomen de la fragmentació en despreniments rocosos. La fragmentació és un fenomen complex de difícil caracterització i de la que ens manquen eines per a la seva modelació en programes de simulació de caiguda de blocs. Tanmateix, els efectes de la fragmentació sobre les prediccions i els conseqüents mapes de perill poden comportar modificacions en l’escenari de risc. A partir d’un conjunt de dades empíriques obtingudes mitjançant l’inventari de despreniments naturals, s’ha observat un clar comportament fractal. A partir d‘aquestes observacions, s’ha proposat un model de fragmentació fractal adaptant la descripció de Perfect (1997) al cas específic del despreniment rocós. Una part important del desenvolupament de la tesi són les metodologies utilitzades per a la caracterització de la massa rocosa abans i després de la fragmentació, des de metodologia per mesurar distribucions de volums de blocs al dipòsit, fins a la utilització de drons i fotogrametria digital per reconstruir el volums dels blocs abans de caure a partir de models 3D i de la caracterització discreta de les discontinuïtats del massís. Les distribucions de volums de blocs abans i després de la fragmentació és relaciones mitjançant el model de fragmentació proposat, utilitzant les dades reals per calibrar els paràmetres del model per retro anàlisis. La utilització de les metodologies proposades i del model de fragmentació ajuden a la comprensió del fenomen, permeten la reproducció de la distribució de blocs sencera amb una estimació del nombre de blocs i el seus volums. També permet una quantificació de la superfície nova creada en cares fresques degut a la ruptura, que es vincula amb l’energia dedicada a la fragmentació. L’objectiu final d’aquesta recerca és la implementació de la fragmentació en un simulador de caiguda de blocs que es troba en desenvolupament en el marc del projecte Rockmodels (https://rockmodels.upc.edu), així com modificar els criteris de càlcul de probabilitat d’arribada que s’utilitzen per elaborar els mapes de perill i els estudis quantitatius del risc. Les conclusions poden canviar la manera com es dissenyen els sistemes de protecció contra despreniments. La presente tesis se centra en el fenómeno de la fragmentación en desprendimientos rocosos. La fragmentación es un fenómeno complejo de difícil caracterización y de la que nos faltan herramientas para su modelación en programas de simulación de caída de bloques. Sin embargo, los efectos de la fragmentación sobre las predicciones y los consecuentes mapas de peligro pueden conllevar modificaciones en el escenario de riesgo. A partir de un conjunto de datos empíricos obtenidos mediante el inventario de desprendimientos naturales, se ha observado un claro comportamiento fractal. A partir de estas observaciones, se ha propuesto un modelo de fragmentación fractal adaptando la descripción de Perfect (1997) en el caso específico del desprendimiento rocoso. Una parte importante del desarrollo de la tesis son las metodologías utilizadas para la caracterización de la masa rocosa antes y después de la fragmentación, desde metodología para medir distribuciones de volúmenes de bloques en el depósito, hasta la utilización de drones y fotogrametría digital para reconstruir el volúmenes de los bloques antes de caer a partir de modelos 3D y de la caracterización discreta de las discontinuidades del macizo. Las distribuciones de volúmenes de bloques antes y después de la fragmentación se relacionan mediante el modelo de fragmentación propuesto, utilizando los datos reales para calibrar los parámetros del modelo mediante retro análisis. La utilización de las metodologías propuestas y del modelo de fragmentación ayudan a la comprensión del fenómeno, permiten la reproducción de la distribución de bloques entera con una estimación del número de bloques y sus volúmenes. También permite una cuantificación de la superficie nueva creada en caras frescas debido a la ruptura, que se vincula con la energía dedicada a la fragmentación. El objetivo final de esta investigación es la implementación de la fragmentación en un simulador de caída de bloques que se encuentra en desarrollo en el marco del proyecto Rockmodels (https://rockmodels.upc.edu), así como modificar los criterios de cálculo de probabilidad de alcance que se utilizan para elaborar los mapas de peligro y los estudios cuantitativos del riesgo. Las conclusiones pueden cambiar la forma en que se diseñan los sistemas de protección contra desprendimientos.

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Brief communication: On direct impact probability of landslides on vehicles

Cited by 12 publications

References 20 publications

Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities in the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country

Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities in the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country

Definitions and Concepts for Quantitative Rockfall Hazard and Risk Analysis

Rockfall analysis : failure, fragmentation and propagation characterization : a fractal fragmentation of rockfalls

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