Building long-term and high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation and air temperature reanalyses by mixing local observations and global atmospheric reanalyses: the ANATEM model

Kuentz, Anna; Mathevet, Thibault; Gailhard, Joël; Hingray, B.

doi:10.5194/hess-19-2717-2015

Cited by 29 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Indeed, high (but not extreme) precipitation amounts fell in this particular month over the north-eastern part of France (Angot, 1911). At the end the month, soils were saturated and heavy rain in January 1910, combined with frozen grounds and melting snow, led to widespread floods in the region (Lang et al, 2013).…”

Section: Spatial Reconstruction: December 1909 Precipitation Over Francementioning

confidence: 88%

“…The release of the two extended global reanalyses -the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al, 2011) and the European Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (ERA-20C Poli et al, 2013) -spanning the entire twentieth century (respectively since 1871 and 1900) opens new ways to derive continuous time series of local weather thanks to downscaling methods. The 20CR reanalysis has already been downscaled for specific regions, as the south-eastern US by DiNapoli and Misra (2012) and Misra et al (2013) using dynamical downscaling, the North East of Spain by Turco et al (2014) using statistical downscaling, or the Durance river basin by Kuentz et al (2013Kuentz et al ( , 2015 using probabilistic statistical downscaling. It has also been recently used for downscaling wave climate over locations in the North-Eastern Atlantic (Camus et al, 2014) or station wind speed in Spain (Kirchner-Bossi et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

Caillouet¹,

Vidal²,

Sauquet³

et al. 2016

Clim. Past

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Abstract. This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the 1871-2012 period built on the NOAA Twentieth Century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR). The objective is to fill in the spatial and temporal data gaps in surface observations in order to improve our knowledge on the local-scale climate variability from the late nineteenth century onwards.The SANDHY (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for HYdrology) statistical downscaling method, initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between large-scale 20CR predictors and local-scale predictands from the Safran high-resolution near-surface reanalysis, available from 1958 onwards only. SANDHY provides a daily ensemble of 125 analogue dates over the 1871-2012 period for 608 climatically homogeneous zones paving France. Large precipitation biases in intermediary seasons are shown to occur in regions with high seasonal asymmetry like the Mediterranean. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over-and under-estimated over the whole of France.Two analogue subselection methods are therefore developed with the aim of keeping the structure of the SANDHY method unchanged while reducing those seasonal biases. The calendar selection keeps the analogues closest to the target calendar day. The stepwise selection applies two new analogy steps based on similarity of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the large-scale 2 m temperature (T ). Comparisons to the Safran reanalysis over 1959-2007 and to homogenized series over the whole twentieth century show that biases in the interannual cycle of precipitation and temperature are reduced with both methods. The stepwise subselection moreover leads to a large improvement of interannual correlation and reduction of errors in seasonal temperature time series. When the calendar subselection is an easily applicable method suitable in a quantitative precipitation forecast context, the stepwise subselection method allows for potential season shifts and SST trends and is therefore better suited for climate reconstructions and climate change studies.The probabilistic downscaling of 20CR over the period 1871-2012 with the SANDHY probabilistic downscaling method combined with the stepwise subselection thus constitutes a perfect framework for assessing the recent observed meteorological events but also future events projected by climate change impact studies and putting them in a historical perspective.

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Section: Spatial Reconstruction: December 1909 Precipitation Over Francementioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

Caillouet¹,

Vidal²,

Sauquet³

et al. 2016

Clim. Past

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of geopotential height fields. A climatic ensemble was reconstructed at daily resolution using the ANATEM methodology (Kuentz et al, 2015), a resampling method based on synoptic situation similarities between days (found by looking at the geopotential height reanalysis), with a sampling of observed climatic series for a given time period (the observation period) over a longer time period (the reconstruction period). Then, a rainfall-runoff model -previously calibrated on the observed period -was used to transform this climatic ensemble into a streamflow ensemble.…”

Section: Scope Of Papermentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Québec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

Brigode

Brissette²,

Nicault

et al. 2016

Clim. Past

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Abstract. Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. The results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.

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“…For recent years, they have also been used to reconstruct past weather conditions from atmospheric reanalysis data (e.g., Kuentz et al, 2015;Caillouet et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An adaptive two-stage analog/regression model for probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation in France

Chardon

Hingray

Favre

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Statistical downscaling models (SDMs) are often used to produce local weather scenarios from large-scale atmospheric information. SDMs include transfer functions which are based on a statistical link identified from observations between local weather and a set of large-scale predictors. As physical processes driving surface weather vary in time, the most relevant predictors and the regression link are likely to vary in time too. This is well known for precipitation for instance and the link is thus often estimated after some seasonal stratification of the data. In this study, we present a two-stage analog/regression model where the regression link is estimated from atmospheric analogs of the current prediction day. Atmospheric analogs are identified from fields of geopotential heights at 1000 and 500 hPa. For the regression stage, two generalized linear models are further used to model the probability of precipitation occurrence and the distribution of non-zero precipitation amounts, respectively. The two-stage model is evaluated for the probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation over France. It noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and amount. As the analog days vary from one prediction day to another, the atmospheric predictors selected in the regression stage and the value of the corresponding regression coefficients can vary from one prediction day to another. The model allows thus for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can also reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations.

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Building long-term and high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation and air temperature reanalyses by mixing local observations and global atmospheric reanalyses: the ANATEM model

Cited by 29 publications

References 40 publications

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Québec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

An adaptive two-stage analog/regression model for probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation in France

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