Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation

Rozenberg, Julie; Guivarch, Céline; Lempert, Robert J.; Hallegatte, Stéphane

doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0904-3

Cited by 81 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The set of SSPs is intended to consist of a single pathway from each domain that is developed in order to be widely shared across research groups and studies in order to improve consistency and comparability of results and facilitate assessment of the literature produced. This approach keeps the number of socioeconomic pathways manageable, at the risk of appearing to simplify the complexity of drivers of mitigative and adaptive capacity (Rozenberg et al 2013).…”

Section: Domains Socioeconomic Pathways and Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This list is not exhaustive nor does it reflect prioritization. A variety of other approaches have been taken to identifying and prioritizing key elements of SSPs (Schweizer and O'Neill 2013;Rozenberg et al 2013).…”

Section: Characteristics and Elements Of The Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of different approaches could be taken to identifying narratives and important SSP elements that have the potential to produce internally consistent pathways that achieve the desired outcomes in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation, including elicitation of experts (Schweizer and O'Neill 2013), generation of large numbers of candidate pathways (Rozenberg et al 2013;Schweizer and O'Neill 2013), or group consensus processes.…”

Section: Initial Specification Of Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

et al. 2013

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The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of Climatic Change (2014) climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.

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Section: Domains Socioeconomic Pathways and Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Characteristics and Elements Of The Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Initial Specification Of Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

et al. 2013

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“…Although scenario discovery can be applied on its own [15,35,36], it is also the analytical core of Robust Decision Making [13,[37][38][39]. Robust decision-making is a model-based decision support approach for the development of robust policies.…”

Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Halim

Kwakkel

Tavasszy

2016

Futures

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The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel time, will result in a loss of throughput for Rotterdam.Keywords: scenario discovery, deep uncertainty, container shipping, global freight logistics IntroductionIn the past couple of decades, changes in the global container transport system have happened very rapidly. These changes have affected virtually all actors in the system, but the biggest impact has been on maritime ports. Ports have to be adaptive and resilient in responding to the changes in the global container shipping system. In today's globalized economy, ports need to ensure that they can function robustly, both as a transshipment node and as a gateway node for global trade flows. A failure to respond to changes in a timely manner often results in negative consequences for the port itself, as well as the economy of the region or country to which the port belongs. For example, the recent congestion at ports on the west coast of the US resulted in estimated damages for the economy of roughly 7 billion US dollar [1].Preparing a port for a wide range of possible future developments is a profound challenge. The global container shipping system is composed of many elements, with strong interdependencies. Often, small changes cascade quickly through the system, potentially resulting in substantial changes somewhere quite far removed from the initial small change. For example, recently Ultra Large Carrier Vessels have entered the market. Liner shipping companies have started to form alliances to pursue economies of scale. This in turn affects the frequency of port calls, the port rotation schedule, and the container volumes loaded and unloaded at each port. Changes not only take place on the seaside. Developments in the hinterland, such as the construction of new infrastructures such as road, railways, and intermodal facilities affect transport cost.The ongoing changes on both the seaside and the land size of seaports change the spatial flow of containers globally. The operation of the Trans-Siberian railways is an example of the importance of hinterland infrastructure on global container flows through ports [2]. A similar © 2016 Man...

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“…Results were documented in narratives with statements relating to key indicators. Today, scenarios are developed with more quantitative approaches that rely on multiple model runs and computer tools, which enhance the ability to address system complexity and make the resulting scenarios less arbitrary (see, for example, Gordon & Hayward 1968;Kane 1972;Gausemeier et al 1998;Lempert et al 2003;Bryant & Lempert 2010;Rozenberg et al 2012;Schweizer & Kriegler 2012;Gerst et al 2013). …”

Section: Selecting Key Technologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Travel in Britain in 2035: Future scenarios and their implications for technology innovation

Rohr¹,

Ecola²,

Zmud³

et al. 2016

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Future scenarios and their implications for technology innovationFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1377Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK R ® is a registered trademark. © 2016 Innovate UKRAND Europe is a not-for-profit organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the sponsor.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.randeurope.org iii Preface RAND Europe, in collaboration with Risk Solutions and Dr Johanna Zmud from the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, was commissioned by Innovate UK to develop future travel scenarios for 2035, considering possible social and economic changes and exploiting key technologies and innovation in ways that could reduce congestion. The purpose of this independent research is to explore and examine how new technologies may infl uence travel and to facilitate discussion about how transport can be more effi cient in future. In no way are the fi ndings intended to refl ect the views, opinions or policy of Innovate UK or the UK Government.The scenario methodology focuses on identifying the potential impact of critical factors and technologies on fi ve activities and the travel associated with them -undertaking work and business, shopping, seeking healthcare, making long-distance journeys for work or leisure, and freight activity. It combines expert opinion, gathered via in-person workshops, with crossimpact analysis, consistency analysis and cluster analysis. The scenarios are then used to identify innovation investments and policies that provide benefi ts across the range of possible futures.This report describes the main aspects of the study: the identifi cation of key future technologies, the development of the scenarios, and the fi ndings from interviews with experts about what the scenarios may mean for innovation and policy priorities. It may be of use to policymakers or researchers who are interested in future travel and the infl uence of technology.RAND Europe is a not-for-profi t organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND Europe's clients include European governments, institutions, NGOs and fi rms with a need for rigorous, independent, multidisciplinary analysis.

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Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation

Cited by 81 publications

References 37 publications

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Travel in Britain in 2035: Future scenarios and their implications for technology innovation

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