Burden of COVID-19 and case fatality rate in Pune, India: an analysis of the first and second wave of the pandemic

Abstract

Objective. To assess trends in incident cases, and case fatality rate between first and second waves, we analyzed programmatic COVID-19 data from Pune city, an epicenter of COVID-19 cases in India. Method. The trends of incident cases, time-to-death, and case fatality rate (CFR) were analysed. In addition, Poisson regression models adjusted for age and gender were used to determine the independent effect of pandemic waves on mortality. Results . Of 465,192 COVID-19 cases, 162,182 (35%) were reported in the first wave, and 4,146 (2.5%) died among them; second wave reported 275,493 (59%) cases and 3184 (1.1%) deaths (p<0.01). The overall CFR was 1.16 per 1000 person-days (PD), which declined from 1.80 per 1000 PD during the first wave to 0.77 per 1000 PD in the second wave. The risk of death was 1.49 times higher during the first wave (adjusted case fatality rate ratio- aCFRR,1.49; 95% CI: 1.37–1.62) and 35% lower in the second wave (aCFRR, 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59 – 0.70). Conclusion. The absolute burden of COVID-19 cases and deaths were more significant in the second wave; however, the CFR declined as the pandemic progressed. Nevertheless, investigating newer therapies and implementing mass vaccinations against COVID-19 are urgently needed.

Demographic and Mortality Trends across three COVID-19 waves in Kashmir Division, India

“…The difference observed in CFR across the waves was found to be statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Bogam P et al, (2022) found that overall case fatality ratio was 1.7% in Pune city, 9 higher than the reported nationwide case fatality ratio of 1.2% while we had overall CFR of 0.85% which is very much lesser than national average. The main reason is that Kashmir Division constitutes around 0.57% population of the country but we have been able to detect around 0.66% cases of the country while as contributed only 0.46% to the COVID-19 deaths in the country; thus authenticating much higher COVID-19 detection rate (due to higher testing per million population) than the national average and at the same time confirming lesser mortality.…”

Prevalence and Impact of Preexisting Comorbidities on Overall Clinical Outcomes of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

“…Several variations in clinical characteristics in both waves in India were reported, including a low death rate and patients less affected by comorbidities in the second wave than the first [ 22 ]. Another study reported a sharp decline in the case of fatality rate in the second wave from the first wave in India, which could be due to the younger demographic profile [ 23 ].…”

Evaluation of immunogenicity post two doses of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, Covaxin after six months

“…India had also witnessed the dreadful effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. 1 , 2 Many SARS-CoV-2 vaccines with different platforms were developed within a short span of time. These vaccines were found effective in curbing the mortality and severity of the disease.…”

“…The two cohorts and the study participants were chosen considering the baseline antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 positivity rate, sample power, and loss to follow-up. 2 All the individuals received two doses of Covaxin at one month intervals. The study population was assessed during three follow-ups one month post first dose, one month and six month post second dose.…”