Business Model Risk Analysis: Predicting the Probability of Business Network Profitability

Abstract

Abstract. In the design phase of business collaboration, it is desirable to be able to predict the profitability of the business-to-be. Therefore, techniques to assess qualities such as costs, revenues, risks, and profitability have been previously proposed. However, they do not allow the modeler to properly manage uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered business collaboration. In many real collaboration projects today, uncertainty regarding the business' present or future characteristics is so significant that ignoring it becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the Predictive, Probabilistic Architecture Modeling Framework (P 2 AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about profitability risks. The P 2 AMF-based approach for profitability risk prediction is also based on the e 3 -value modeling language and on the Object Constraint Language (OCL). The paper introduces the prediction and modeling approach, and a supporting software tool. The use of the approach is illustrated by means of a case.

Computer in Industry Special Issue on “Interoperability and Future Internet for Next-Generation Enterprises” Editorial and state of the art

“…An important basis for exploring the value of e-commerce ideas has been put forward in [20]. More recent methods extend this by considering the uncertainty regarding business characteristics [29] and incorporating utility functions to balance between various value attributes that enterprises may have [50].…”

Analysis of the Tool Support for Business Model Innovation

“…The term 'tool support' in this contribution is used in the meaning of software support, whereby this includes method support in a broader sense. [20], [21], [22], [23], [24], [25], [26], [5], [27], [28]; [29], [6], [30], [31], [32] The literature search yields 16 relevant results as well as 5 additional results found in the overview by [5] (table 1). The publication from IEEE Xplore [18] featured the so-called Business Model Builder, a digital twin of a BM.…”

“…Although the authors describe a comprehensive method for creating and adapting a BM, the corresponding software tool seems to be unavailable. Unfortunately, this also applies to other tools found in the literature search (Assist is only available in connection with a consulting service [24], the BM-tool for additive manufacturing technologies is not freely available [19], OctoProz [17], Enterprise Architecture Analysis Tool (EAAT) [25], Software Business Model Tool [28], BM Wizard [29], BMeG editor [22]). Other tools, on the contrary, are only presented within literature, as they are still prototypes (Business Model Developer [26], BM development tool [30], BM engineering tool [31]).…”

Design of FTTS forecasting model using Markov chain and P2AMF framework case study: Farmer's Terms of Trade of Smallholders Estate Crops Subsector in Riau

“…Decision making based solely on previous experiences will cause the organization difficult to survive [7]. So, precise and accurate data are needed to be used as a recommendation to make decision and to be used for planning in the future.…”