Calculation of the 1995 lung cancer incidence in the Netherlands and Sweden caused by smoking and radon: risk implications for radon

Abstract

A two-mutation carcinogenesis model was used to calculate the expected lung cancer incidence caused by both smoking and exposure to radon in two populations, i.e. those of the Netherlands and Sweden. The model parameters were taken from a previous analysis of lung cancer in smokers and uranium miners and the model was applied to the two populations taking into account the smoking habits and exposure to radon. For both countries, the smoking histories and indoor radon exposure data for the period 1910-1995 were reconstructed and used in the calculations. Compared with the number of lung cancer cases observed in 1995 among both males and females in the two countries, the calculations show that between 72% and 94% of the registered lung cancer cases may be attributable to the combined effects of radon and smoking. In the Netherlands, a portion of about 4% and in Sweden, a portion of about 20% of the lung cancer cases (at ages 0-80 years) may be attributable to radon exposure, the numbers for males being slightly lower than for females. In the Netherlands, the proportions of lung cancers attributable to smoking are 91% for males and 71% for females; in Sweden, the figures are 70% and 56%, respectively. The risk from radon exposure is dependent on gender and cigarette smoking: the excess absolute risk for continuous exposure to 100 Bq m-3 ranges between 0.003 and 0.006 and compares well with current estimates, e.g. 0.0043 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The excess relative risk for continuous exposure to 100 Bq m-3 shows a larger variation, ranging generally between 0.1 for smokers and 1.0 for non-smokers. The results support the assumption that exposure to (indoor) radon, even at a level as low as background radiation, causes lung cancer proportional to the dose and is consistent with risk factors derived from the miners data.

Attributable mortality to radon exposure in Galicia, Spain. Is it necessary to act in the face of this health problem?

“…This attributable mortality is very similar to that calculated by Puskin and Yang [24]. Another study, conducted by Leenhouts and cols [25] indicates that higher exposure to radon among the Swedish versus the Dutch population is reflected in the percentage of lung cancer attributable to radon, i.e., 25% versus less than 10%. Among males, the percentage exclusively attributable to radon is 2% in Holland and 17% in Sweden (for women these percentages are 6% and 24%, respectively).…”

Risk of lung cancer and residential radon in China: Pooled results of two studies

“…The ubiquitous presence of radon in homes, although at concentrations generally below those in mines, raises concern about the contribution of radon to lung cancer risk in the general population. Extrapolations using miner‐based models suggest radon may be the second leading cause of lung cancer, which may, for example, be responsible for 7% of lung cancers in Germany,2 4% in the Netherlands,3 20% in Sweden,3 11% in Norway4 and 10–15% in the United States 1, 5. To assess validity of these estimates, investigators have conducted epidemiological studies of residential radon and lung cancer in many countries.…”

Residential Radon Exposure and Lung Cancer Risk in Kazakhstan

“…It is considered worldwide that 3-20% of all lung cancer deaths are caused by indoor radon exposure [42]. The highest estimate of percent risk of lung cancer deaths, which consist 20% from whole mortality of lung cancer, was reported in the study for an average radon concentration of 110 Bq/m 3 [43]. The lowest indoor radon concentration (21 Bq/m 3 ) was measured in the UK, which also showed the lowest percent risk (3.3%) of lung cancer deaths [44].…”