Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Iovine, Giulio; Melillo, Massimo; Peruccacci, Silvia; Terranova, O.; Vennari, Carmela; Guzzetti, Fausto

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.10.019

Cited by 219 publications

(200 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(78 reference statements)

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“…For landslides, the hydro-meteorological trigger is often rainfall (Jakob and Weatherly 2003;Farahmand and Aghakouchak 2013), and empirical rainfall thresholds are often used to define minimum triggering conditions for landslides (Peruccacci et al 2012); however these are often localized, and depend greatly on the quality of rainfall data (Gariano et al 2015). The use of broader scale atmospheric conditions can alleviate this problem although, to date, few studies have addressed this issue (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landslides and synoptic weather trends in the European Alps

2016

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Landslides present a substantial geomorphological hazard in Alpine regions and there are expectations that climate change will alter their frequency and magnitude in the future. Understanding the spatial distribution and timing of landslides in the context of past change is therefore necessary if we are to assess their future behaviour. Using a regional landslide inventory for the European Alps we analyse the influence of weather types, specifically the COST733 database, on landslides. Monte Carlo permutation tests are used to assess which weather types are most likely associated with landslides. Weather types with high precipitation are consistent with more landslides, although there are also seasonal differences. Over the duration of the COST733 catalogue there has been a significant decrease in the number of days with weather types associated with low frequencies of landslides. During the spring and autumn months, the trend in observed landslide frequency and weather types are well matched. However while there is potential for weather typing to be used as a proxy for future landslide frequency, other external factors must be carefully considered.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landslides and synoptic weather trends in the European Alps

2016

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“…Therefore the PSS is widely applied for the validation and evaluation of predictive models in hazard assessment and risk management (Beguería, 2006). Examples for this are the 20 validation of landslide susceptibility models (Leonarduzzi et al, 2017;Gariano et al, 2015;Frattini et al, 2010) or avalanche hazard (Purves et al, 2003). As a second overall accuracy measure we apply the Heidke Skill Score HSS (Heidke, 1926), also referred to as Kappa.…”

Section: Validation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Automated snow avalanche release area delineation – validation of existing algorithms and proposition of a new object-based approach for large scale hazard indication mapping

Bühler¹,

Rickenbach²,

Stoffel³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Snow avalanche hazard is threatening people and infrastructure in all alpine regions with seasonal or permanent snow cover around the globe. Coping with this hazard is a big challenge and during the past centuries, different strategies were 10 developed. Today, in Switzerland, experienced avalanche engineers produce hazard maps with a very high reliability based on avalanche cadastre information, terrain analysis, climatological datasets and numerical modelling of the flow dynamics for selected avalanche tracks that might affect settlements. However, for regions outside the considered settlement areas such areawide hazard maps are not available mainly because of the too high cost, in Switzerland and in most mountain regions around the world. Therefore, hazard indication maps, even though they are less reliable and less detailed, are often the only spatial 15 planning tool available. To produce meaningful and cost-effective avalanche hazard indication maps over large regions (regional to national scale), automated release area delineation has to be combined with volume estimations and state-of-theart numerical avalanche simulations.In this paper we validate existing potential release area (PRA) delineation algorithms, published in peer-reviewed journals, 20 that are based on digital terrain models and their derivatives such as slope angle, aspect, roughness and curvature. For validation, we apply avalanche cadastre data from three different ski resorts in the vicinity of Davos, Switzerland, where experienced ski-patrol staff mapped most avalanches in detail since many years. After calculating the best fit input parameters for every tested algorithm, we compare their performance based on the reference datasets. Because all tested algorithms do not provide meaningful delineation between individual potential release areas (PRA), we propose a new algorithm based on object-25 based image analysis (OBIA). In combination with an automatic procedure to estimate the average release depth (d0), defining the avalanche release volume, this algorithm enables the numerical simulation of thousands of avalanches over large regions applying the well-established avalanche dynamics model RAMMS. We demonstrate this for the region of Davos for two hazard scenarios, frequent (10 -30 years return period) and extreme (100 -300 years return period). This approach opens the door for large scale avalanche hazard indication mapping in all regions where high quality and resolution digital terrain models and 30 snow data are available.Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi

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“…The principles 15 used in theses analyses can also be applied to validate the rainfall thresholds (e.g. Staley et al, 2013, Gariano et al, 2015a, Zêzere et al, 2015. The confusion matrix is used to assess the correct and incorrect predicted observations, for positive and negative cases (Beguería, 2006).…”

Section: Rainfall Triggering Thresholds Assessment and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Vaz¹,

Zêzere²,

Pereira³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. This work proposes a comprehensive methodology to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation, using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall dataset. The methodology is applied to the Lisbon region and include the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination 10 (quantity-duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds is assessed and validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics.Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, such thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km distance from the rain gauge.The obtained rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression have a good performance in ROC metrics. However, 15 the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events, established in the zone between the lower limit threshold and the upper limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

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Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy

Cited by 219 publications

References 32 publications

Landslides and synoptic weather trends in the European Alps

Landslides and synoptic weather trends in the European Alps

Automated snow avalanche release area delineation – validation of existing algorithms and proposition of a new object-based approach for large scale hazard indication mapping

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

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