California fault parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bryant, William A

doi:10.3133/ofr20071437a

Cited by 16 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…The resulting fault section database is described in Appendix A (Wills, Weldon, and Bryant, 2007). The fault sections and some of their parameters can be displayed using SCEC visualization tools or the Coulomb visualization tools (see Data and Resources section).…”

Section: Fault Section Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The greatest epistemic uncertainties concern how faults geometrically interact at depth, which can lead to mutually exclusive, alternative fault sections. Alternative models were developed in the SCEC Community Fault Model for several regions in southern California, as described originally by Plesch and Shaw (2003) and Plesch et al (2007) and in Appendix A of the main report (Wills, Weldon, and Bryant, 2007).…”

Section: Alternative Fault Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…10, sheet 12 of the spreadsheet). These type-B sources are combined because their orientation, proximity, structural style, and slip rate are similar enough that they are believed capable of rupturing together, as described in Appendix A (Wills, Weldon, and Bryant, 2007). No information is available that allows us to give asymmetric weight as to whether or not these type-B faults do indeed connect, so 50% weighting was applied in the UCERF 2 logic tree (Fig.…”

Section: Type-b Source Rate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These are plotted on the map in Figure 10c, listed in Table 6, and described previously and in Appendix A (Wills, Weldon, and Bryant, 2007) in the context of the deformation models. Following the NSHMP (2002), ruptures in each of these zones were modeled as vertical strike-slip events with a strike parallel to the regional structural trend.…”

Section: Type-c Source Rate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

Field

Dawson

Felzer

et al. 2009

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

273

183

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The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6:5 ≤ M ≤ 7:0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ≥ 6:7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ≥ 7:5 and to 4.5% for M ≥ 8:0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ≥ 8:0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ≥ 6:7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

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Section: Fault Section Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Alternative Fault Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Type-b Source Rate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Type-c Source Rate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

Field

Dawson

Felzer

et al. 2009

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

273

183

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In order to constrain the behavior of the faults we prescribe the mean slip rate on each fault or fault segment and the mean recurrence interval between earthquakes on each fault or fault segment. The mean slip rates are based on geological and geodetic data and, when available, the mean recurrence times are based on paleoseismic data (California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1996;Bryant and Lundberg, 2002;US Geological Survey, 2002;Wills, Weldon, and Bryant, 2008;Petersen, et al, 2008;Southern California Earthquake Data Center, 2010). When paleoseismic data are not available a "characteristic" earthquake magnitude is assumed and combined with the slip rate to obtain a recurrence interval.…”

Section: Vc Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fault and seismicity based composite simulation in northern California

Yıkılmaz

Heien

Turcotte

et al. 2011

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. We generate synthetic catalogs of seismicity in northern California using a composite simulation. The basis of the simulation is the fault based "Virtual California" (VC) earthquake simulator. Back-slip velocities and mean recurrence intervals are specified on model strike-slip faults. A catalog of characteristic earthquakes is generated for a period of 100 000 yr. These earthquakes are predominantly in the range M = 6 to M = 8, but do not follow Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling at lower magnitudes. In order to model seismicity on unmapped faults we introduce background seismicity which occurs randomly in time with GR scaling and is spatially associated with the VC model faults. These earthquakes fill in the GR scaling down to M = 4 (the smallest earthquakes modeled). The rate of background seismicity is constrained by the observed rate of occurrence of M > 4 earthquakes in northern California. These earthquakes are then used to drive the BASS (branching aftershock sequence) model of aftershock occurrence. The BASS model is the self-similar limit of the ETAS (epidemic type aftershock sequence) model. Families of aftershocks are generated following each Virtual California and background main shock. In the simulations the rate of occurrence of aftershocks is essentially equal to the rate of occurrence of main shocks in the magnitude range 4 < M < 7. We generate frequencymagnitude and recurrence interval statistics both regionally and fault specific. We compare our modeled rates of seismicity and spatial variability with observations.

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One hundred and fifty years of Coulomb stress history along the California-Nevada border, USA

Verdecchia

Carena

2015

Tectonics

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The region north of the Garlock Fault between the Sierra Nevada and Death Valley has experienced at least eight M w ≥ 6 earthquakes in historical times, beginning with the 1872, M w 7.5, Owens Valley earthquake. Furthermore, since 1978, the Long Valley Caldera has been undergoing periods of unrest, with earthquake swarms and resurgence. Our goal is to determine whether the 1872 Owens Valley earthquake and the caldera unrest have influenced the evolution of seismicity in the area. We model the evolution of coseismic, postseismic, and interseismic Coulomb stress change (Coulomb failure stress (ΔCFS)) in the region due to both M w ≥ 6 earthquakes and caldera inflation in the last 150 years. Our results show that the 1872 Owens Valley earthquake has an important influence on subsequent events, strongly encouraging faulting in northern Owens Valley while inhibiting it elsewhere. There is also a correlation between caldera inflation and seismicity in northern Owens Valley, evidenced by the west-to-east migration of earthquakes from the Long Valley Caldera toward the White Mountains immediately following the 1978 caldera inflation event. Finally, we show that a total ΔCFS increase of up to 30 bars in the last 150 years has occurred on part of the White Mountains fault, making it a possible candidate for the next major earthquake in this region.

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California fault parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

Cited by 16 publications

References 90 publications

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

A fault and seismicity based composite simulation in northern California

One hundred and fifty years of Coulomb stress history along the California-Nevada border, USA

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