Campaign Persuasion and Nascent Partisanship in Mexico's New Democracy

Abstract

Despite ample evidence of preelection volatility in vote intentions in new democracies, scholars of comparative politics remain skeptical that campaigns affect election outcomes. Research on the United States provides a theoretical rationale for campaign effects, but shows little of it in practice in presidential elections because candidates' media investments are about equal and voters' accumulated political knowledge and partisan attachments make them resistant to persuasive messages. I vary these parameters by examining a new democracy where voters' weaker partisan attachments and lower levels of political information magnify the effects of candidates' asymmetric media investments to create large persuasion effects. The findings have implications for the generalizability of campaign effects theory to new democracies, the development of mass partisanship, candidate advertising strategies, and the specific outcome of Mexico's hotly contested 2006 presidential election. Data come primarily from the Mexico 2006 Panel Study.

¿importan Las Campañas (En Las Nuevas Democracias)? Interés De La Campaña, Elección Del Voto Y Satisfacción De La Encuesta

“…Mexico has a fairly institutionalized party system for the average of the region (Mainwaring 2018) 15 that presents puzzling findings when the literature has studied campaign effects in presidential elections. As previously discussed, while in American presidential elections only a small proportion of the electorate changes its vote intention, at least a third of the electorate switch its declared vote intention in Mexican presidential campaigns (Greene, 2011 and2015). These findings are puzzling since Mexico has fairly strong parties and party labels, with high levels of electoral stability in both presidential and legislative elections (Mainwaring, 2016).…”

“…In contrast, most studies in comparative political behavior, particularly in Latin America, argue that voters in new democracies are more persuadable and show little resistance to campaign messages. Since party systems are young and partisan cues and roots in the electorate tend to be weak, campaign fundamentals (such as voters' partisan attachments) are weaker and campaigns play a more crucial role (Lawson and McCann, 2004;Baker, Ames and Renno, 2006;and Greene, 2011). For example, Greene (2011 and2015) finds that in Mexico campaigns significantly affect voters' choices since 34% of the electorate shifted their vote intention during the 2006 and 2012 presidential elections.…”

“…This paper contributes to the campaigns literature by pointing out a different mechanism by which campaigns matter. Previous research has primarily focused on the ability of voters to base their vote choice on the fundamentals over the course of the campaign (Gelman and King, 1993) or voters' susceptibility to persuasive campaign messages (Lawson and McCann, 2005;Greene, 2011 in comparative studies). The findings of this paper suggest that some voters appear to be respondents unmotivated to engage in the survey interview.…”

Rethinking the Meaning of Citizenship in Post-PRI Mexico: Can the State Change Its Image?

“…In the short run, public opinion in Mexico may be more fluid and responsive to current events (Greene 2011;Hiskey and Bowler 2005;McCann and Lawson 2003). Perhaps even boilerplate letters sent from an official to a constituent-correspondence that is commonplace in established democracies-can change public attitudes (Cover and Brumberg 1982;Fenno 1978;Mayhew 1974).…”

PT no purgatório: ambivalência eleitoral no primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais de 2010

“…É importante ressaltar que tal ambivalência deve-se a pressões cruzadas a que eleitores estão expostos e isso não é algo incomum em qualquer democracia. Contudo, certos públicos como os que não têm lealdades de longo prazo profundamente enraizadas, estão mais sujeitos aos efeitos, às vezes contraditórios, às vezes de reforço (GREENE, 2011), das múltiplas dimensões da avaliação retrospectiva de políticos. Rennó (2007;, seguindo Fiorina, ressalta que eleitores utilizam diversos critérios avaliativos retrospectivos para julgarem seus representantes na hora do voto.…”