¿importan Las Campañas (En Las Nuevas Democracias)? Interés De La Campaña, Elección Del Voto Y Satisfacción De La Encuesta

Lat. American Res. Rev.

2021

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This study focuses on a dimension of partisanship overlooked by most comparative studies on campaign effects: individual-level stability, a measure of short-term partisanship. Some voters in young democracies are able to develop partisanship as a screen through which they observe the political world, leading them to interpret new information in a manner that reinforces their political predispositions. However, some voters lack long-term partisan attachments, enabling them to update their party identification as the campaign unfolds. These voters have a harder time reinforcing their precampaign dispositions and are more likely to change their vote intention. The findings suggest that for some voters, partisanship and vote choice are empirically intertwined.

Section: Partisan Instability In Mexican Presidential Elections (2006-2012)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Short- and Long-Term Partisanship: Campaign Effects and the Stability of Party Identification in Latin America

Lat. American Res. Rev.

2021

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How Do Campaigns Matter? Independents, Political Information, and the Enlightening Role of Campaigns in Mexico

International Journal of Public Opinion Research

2021

Based on the Mexican case, this study finds that voters who report low levels of campaign information are more likely to update their vote intention as election day gets closer. Moreover, in contrast to previous studies which argue that political campaigns mainly persuade voters to support candidates against their precampaign dispositions, this article shows that, by the end of the campaign, most voters support the candidate best aligned with their underlying political predispositions—partisanship and presidential approval. In other words, voters become enlightened. This effect is particularly important among independents, a portion of the electorate understudied by the literature on Latin American political behavior.

Do (Perceptions of) Electoral Polling Affect Voters' Behavior? Campaigns, Partisan Bias, and Strategic Voting

2023

Rev. Lat. Op. Pub.

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The manuscript highlights the major role that partisanship plays in moderating voters’ interpretation of polling information and incentives to behave strategically. While prior studies highlight that partisans are less likely to vote strategically as the expressive costs of defection increase, this study sheds light on the conditions in which voters—even partisans—behave strategically and which contribute to an increase in the proportion of voters who change their vote intention during campaigns. Only partisans informed about polls are able to overcome their partisan bias and engage in strategic voting. By taking strategic voting into account in the study of campaigns, the present work builds a bridge between the campaigns effects literature and studies on strategic voting.