Can Conspiracy Beliefs Be Beneficial? Longitudinal Linkages Between Conspiracy Beliefs, Anxiety, Uncertainty Aversion, and Existential Threat

Abstract

Research suggests that conspiracy beliefs are adopted because they promise to reduce anxiety, uncertainty, and threat. However, little research has investigated whether conspiracy beliefs actually fulfill these promises. We conducted two longitudinal studies ( NStudy 1 = 405, NStudy 2 = 1,012) to examine how conspiracy beliefs result from, and in turn influence, anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat. Random intercept cross-lagged panel analyses indicate that people who were, on average, more anxious, uncertainty averse, and existentially threatened held stronger conspiracy beliefs. Increases in conspiracy beliefs were either unrelated to changes in anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat (Study 2), or even predicted increases in these variables (Study 1). In both studies, increases in conspiracy beliefs predicted subsequent increases in conspiracy beliefs, suggesting a self-reinforcing circle. We conclude that conspiracy beliefs likely do not have beneficial consequences, but may even reinforce the negative experience of anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat.

Shining a spotlight on the dangerous consequences of conspiracy theories

“…While there is a strong evidence base for the psychological underpinning of conspiracy beliefs, less is known about the consequences [ 9 ]. This article has illuminated a range of consequences of conspiracy theorising, from impacting global issues such as vaccine uptake to worsening intergroup relations.…”

“…If conspiracy beliefs are alluring as a means to address psychological needs, then a positive consequence of endorsing these beliefs could be assumed to remedy negative feelings. To test this, Liekefett and colleagues [ 9 ] conducted two longitudinal studies over a 6-week and 1-year time frame, tracking individuals’ conspiracy beliefs, anxiety, uncertainty aversion and threat perception. Findings revealed that conspiracy beliefs did not reduce anxiety, uncertainty aversion, or existential threat, and there was some evidence that it increased these negative feelings and reinforced conspiracy beliefs.…”

Reasons to believe: A systematic review and meta-analytic synthesis of the motives associated with conspiracy beliefs

“…However, less is known about the relative and absolute nature of these relationships, such as whether some motives play a more central role than others (see van Prooijen, 2020), or whether these beliefs actually satisfy the needs that motivate their endorsement in the first place (cf. Liekefett et al, 2021). Other ambiguities exist with regards to whether beliefs in conspiracy theories serve to challenge or defend the status quo (e.g., Jolley et al, 2018), are harmful or constructive to personal well-being (Cichocka, 2020;Douglas et al, 2015), and whether they should be seen as a threat to, or even a manifestation of the natural processes of a democratic society (Douglas et al, 2019).…”

The direct and indirect effect of neuroticism on work engagement of nurses during COVID-19: A temporal analysis

“…However, there is no specific accepted time interval between different phases of data collection ( Cole and Maxwell, 2003 ). However, in recent scholarly work, researchers have maintained a temporal separation of 2 weeks to control the common method bias without losing the effect of the predictor on the outcome ( Raja et al, 2018 ; Liekefett et al, 2022 ). Consistent with the existing practice, we followed a temporal separation of 2 weeks in our data collection.…”