Can Human Movements Explain Heterogeneous Propagation of Dengue Fever in Cambodia?

Teurlai, Magali; Huy, Rekol; Cazelles, Bernard; Duboz, Raphaël; Baehr, Christophe; Vong, Sirenda

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001957

Cited by 51 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The most likely outbreak cluster was found to be in the Petaling district. The identified clusters at the sub-district level were close in space and time and may have been driven by human mobility rather than spatial action on the vector part (Stoddard et al, 2009;Teurlai et al, 2012) as there is a relatively high daily movement of commuters across the interconnecting sub-districts (Barter, 2002;Bunnell et al, 2002). The 2010 outbreak clusters in this area (Table 1) confirm the findings by Hassan et al (2012), who associated these clusters with rainfall.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Malaysia: combining address and sub-district level

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Spatio-temporal patterns of dengue risk in Malaysia were studied both at the address and the sub-district level in the province of Selangor and the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur. We geocoded laboratory-confirmed dengue cases from the years 2008 to 2010 at the address level and further aggregated the cases in proportion to the population at risk at the sub-district level. Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic was applied for the investigation that identified changing spatial patterns of dengue cases at both levels. At the address level, spatio-temporal clusters of dengue cases were concentrated at the central and south-eastern part of the study area in the early part of the years studied. Analyses at the sub-district level revealed a consistent spatial clustering of a high number of cases proportional to the population at risk. Linking both levels assisted in the identification of differences and confirmed the presence of areas at high risk for dengue infection. Our results suggest that the observed dengue cases had both a spatial and a temporal epidemiological component, which needs to be acknowledged and addressed to develop efficient control measures, including spatially explicit vector control. Our findings highlight the importance of detailed geographical analysis of disease cases in heterogeneous environments with a focus on clustered populations at different spatial and temporal scales. We conclude that bringing together information on the spatio-temporal distribution of dengue cases with a deeper insight of linkages between dengue risk, climate factors and land use constitutes an important step towards the development of an effective risk management strategy.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Malaysia: combining address and sub-district level

et al. 2014

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“…Various agent-based simulations suggest that the mobility of humans could be the main driving force behind the spread of the dengue virus 29,30 . Teurlai et al 13 showed that the human mobility, estimated from the road network, influences the spread at a national scale in Cambodia. Especially house-to-house human movements seem to play a key role in Iquitos, Peru 16 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments

Massaro

Kondor

Ratti

2019

Sci Rep

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Urbanization drives the epidemiology of infectious diseases to many threats and new challenges. In this research, we study the interplay between human mobility and dengue outbreaks in the complex urban environment of the city-state of Singapore. We integrate both stylized and mobile phone data-driven mobility patterns in an agent-based transmission model in which humans and mosquitoes are represented as agents that go through the epidemic states of dengue. We monitor with numerical simulations the system-level response to the epidemic by comparing our results with the observed cases reported during the 2013 and 2014 outbreaks. Our results show that human mobility is a major factor in the spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue even on the short scale corresponding to intra-city distances. We finally discuss the advantages and the limits of mobile phone data and potential alternatives for assessing valuable mobility patterns for modeling vector-borne diseases outbreaks in cities.

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“…Adults disperse by flying typically short distances and may have difficulty navigating through urban landscapes (Harrington et al, 2005; Hemme et al, 2010; Scott et al, 2000a,b; Getis et al, 2003). Because of these features, patterns of human movement—especially in the large urban populations where dengue is prevalent—play a potentially large role in virus spread and persistence (Stoddard et al, 2009; Wen et al, 2012; Padmanabha et al, 2012; Teurlai et al, 2012; Mondini et al, 2009; Barmak et al, 2011; Vazquez-Prokopec et al, 2010). Variation in human movements patterns, however, are almost never incorporated in mathematical models of vector-borne diseases (Reiner et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socially structured human movement shapes dengue transmission despite the diffusive effect of mosquito dispersal

2014

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For sexually and directly transmitted infectious diseases, social connections influence transmission because they determine contact between individuals. For pathogens that are indirectly transmitted by arthropod vectors, the movement of the vectors is thought to diminish any potential role of social connections. Results from a recent study of mosquito-borne dengue virus (DENV), however, indicate that human movement alone can explain significant spatial variation in urban transmission rates. Because movement patterns are structured by social ties, this result suggests that social proximity may be a good predictor of infection risk for DENV and other pathogens transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. Here we investigated the effect of socially structured movement on DENV transmission using a spatially explicit, agent-based transmission model. When individual movements overlap to a high degree within social groups we were able to recreate infection patterns similar to those detected in dengue-endemic, northeastern Peru. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that social proximity drives fine-scale heterogeneity in DENV transmission rates, a result that was robust to the influence of mosquito dispersal. This heterogeneity in transmission caused by socially structured movements appeared to be hidden by the diffusive effect of mosquito dispersal in aggregated infection dynamics, which implies heterogeneity could be present and active in real dengue systems without being easily noticed. Accounting for socially determined, overlapping human movements could substantially improve the efficiency and efficacy of dengue surveillance and disease prevention programs as well as result in more accurate estimates of important epidemiological quantities, such as R0.

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Can Human Movements Explain Heterogeneous Propagation of Dengue Fever in Cambodia?

Cited by 51 publications

References 24 publications

Spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Malaysia: combining address and sub-district level

Spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Malaysia: combining address and sub-district level

Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments

Socially structured human movement shapes dengue transmission despite the diffusive effect of mosquito dispersal

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