Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature

Bergsvik, Janna; Fauske, Agnes; Hart, Rannveig Kaldager

doi:10.1111/padr.12431

Cited by 72 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 100 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In general, there is only weak evidence that welfare benefits affect fertility (Gauthier 2007 ; see also Bergsvik et al. 2021 ). Future work could test this theory more explicitly.…”

Section: Testing the Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Human Capital Mediates Natural Selection in Contemporary Humans

Hugh-Jones

Abdellaoui

2022

Behav Genet

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Natural selection has been documented in contemporary humans, but little is known about the mechanisms behind it. We test for natural selection through the association between 33 polygenic scores and fertility, across two generations, using data from UK Biobank (N = 409,629 British subjects with European ancestry). Consistently over time, polygenic scores that predict higher earnings, education and health also predict lower fertility. Selection effects are concentrated among lower SES groups, younger parents, people with more lifetime sexual partners, and people not living with a partner. The direction of natural selection is reversed among older parents, or after controlling for age at first live birth. These patterns are in line with the economic theory of fertility, in which earnings-increasing human capital may either increase or decrease fertility via income and substitution effects in the labour market. Studying natural selection can help us understand the genetic architecture of health outcomes: we find evidence in modern day Great Britain for multiple natural selection pressures that vary between subgroups in the direction and strength of their effects, that are strongly related to the socio-economic system, and that may contribute to health inequalities across income groups.

show abstract

“…In general, there is only weak evidence that welfare benefits affect fertility (Gauthier 2007 ; see also Bergsvik et al. 2021 ). Future work could test this theory more explicitly.…”

Section: Testing the Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Human Capital Mediates Natural Selection in Contemporary Humans

Hugh-Jones

Abdellaoui

2022

Behav Genet

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The expressed aim of a considerable number of governments of European countries to 'raise fertility' is another reason why future fertility increases should not be ruled out (UNDP, 2019b). The evidence on the effects of public policies on fertility rates appears mixed, and has been much debated in the literature (Bergsvik et al, 2021;Frejka and Zakharov, 2013;Gauthier, 2007;Parr and Guest, 2011). In the eastern European countries where net migration is positive and below the replacement level (i.e., Czechia, Estonia, Hungary and Slovakia) and in Italy, the constant TFR that, in combination with constant net migration at its current (i.e., 2018) level would produce long run zero population growth lies within the 1.78-1.99 range.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries

Parr¹

2022

Populationyearbook

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Between 2009 and 2018, the total fertility rate fell in most European countries. In 2018, fertility was below the replacement level throughout Europe. Net migration was positive for two-thirds of European countries. This paper illustrates the implications for long-run population growth of observed net migration-fertilitymortality combinations in 20 European countries over the 2009–18 period by comparing the observed net migration to a zero population growth-related ‘replacement level’ for net migration. The results show that in several northern and north-western European countries, the net migration level has been consistently above this replacement level: if the net migration level and fertility and mortality rates remain constant, the population would increase. However, the findings also indicate that in all of the eastern European countries covered, the net migration level has been consistently below the net migration replacement level. The results further show that in Finland, Norway and Switzerland, the long-run implications of having constant fertility-mortality-net migration levels change from leading to population growth to leading to population decline. The opposite pattern is observed in Germany. The feasibility of preventing long-run population decreases through changes in net migration levels is discussed in light of the results.

show abstract

“…The significant impact of economic incentives on fertility promotion is now internationally recognized [6][7][8][9][10][11]36]. With regard to the scenario of a maternity incentive policy, the paper shows that, based on simulation results, when the maternity incentive policy starts in 2020 for two children only, the trend of a gradual increase in the cumulative balance of the maternity insurance and health insurance pools will not change even if the maternity incentive increases from RMB 10 000 to RMB 100 000, due to the relatively small number of recipients.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of incentive-based population policies on sustainability of China’s recent maternity insurance system reform: a system dynamics simulation

Zhang

Liu

Wang

et al. 2022

Health Res Policy Sys

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background This paper seeks to assess the sustainability of the reformed maternity insurance system and the extent to which China’s current maternity insurance system can support different levels of fertility incentives in the future. Our findings will serve as a reference for countries in a similar demographic predicament and those about to face it. Methods This study used a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. In the qualitative assessment, we used a grounded theory model to generalize the factors influencing the sustainability of maternity insurance funds. For the quantitative analysis, we used a novel and comprehensive system dynamics model to visualize the status of the combined operation of maternity and health insurance. Data are mainly derived from the historical data of the Statistical Yearbook of Jiangsu Province and the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Results In the short term, fertility incentive payments can be set to motivate people to have children. It is therefore recommended that when the scope of the fertility incentive policy is limited to two children, and an average amount above RMB 10 000 could be set, it would be prudent to set the amount at a level not exceeding RMB 10 000 when the scope of the fertility incentive policy is for all newborns. In the long term, a system of incentives for childbirth should be built from education policy, house price regulation, tax relief and childcare services. Conclusion Our research not only highlights the significance of improving the resilience of maternity insurance by combining maternity insurance and health insurance funds, but also suggests a way to economically incentivize beneficiaries to have children so as to mitigate the decline in China’s birth rate and cope with the crisis of an ageing population.

show abstract

Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature

Cited by 72 publications

References 100 publications

Human Capital Mediates Natural Selection in Contemporary Humans

Human Capital Mediates Natural Selection in Contemporary Humans

Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries

Effects of incentive-based population policies on sustainability of China’s recent maternity insurance system reform: a system dynamics simulation

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About