Can we use crop modelling for identifying climate change adaptation options?

Corbeels, Marc; Berre, David; Rusinamhodzi, Léonard; López-Ridaura, Santiago

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.02.026

Cited by 75 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The general decline in maize yield from year 2020 to 2080 suggests a greater negative influence due to warmer climate. This result is consistent with the projections of Corbeels et al (2018) who found average maize yield would significantly decline in Southern Africa under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increase in maize yield variability in response to climate change was positive for all location, which according to Parkes et al (2018) represents a risk of crop failure and loss especially for northern and southern Nigeria.…”

Section: Modelling the Likely Impact Of Climate Change On The Yield Osupporting

confidence: 92%

The Impact of Climate Change on the Value of Growing Maize as a Biofuel

Olasogba

Duckers

2020

CEREM

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Abstract: Aim: According to COP23, Climate Change threatens the stability of the planet’s ecosystems, with a tipping point believed to be at only +2°C. With the burning of fossil fuels, held responsible for the release of much of the greenhouse gases, a sensible world- wide strategy is to replace fossil fuel energy sources with renewable ones. The renewable resources such as wind, hydro, geothermal, wave and tidal energies are found in particular geographical locations whereas almost every country is potentially able to exploit PV and biomass. This paper examines the role that changing climate could have on the growing and processing of biomass. The primary concern is that future climates could adversely affect the yield of crops, and hence the potential contribution of biomass to the strategy to combat climate change. Maize, a C4 crop, was selected for the study because it can be processed into biogas or other biofuels. Four different Nigerian agricultural zones growing maize were chosen for the study. Long-term weather data was available for the four sites and this permitted the modelling of future climates. Design / Research methods: The results of this study come from modelling future climates and applying this to crop models. This unique work, which has integrated climate change and crop modelling to forecast yield and carbon emissions, reveals how maize responds to the predicted increased temperature, change in rainfall, and the variation in weather patterns. In order to fully assess a biomass crop, the full energy cycle and carbon emissions were estimated based on energy and materials inputs involved in farm management: fertilizer application, and tillage type. For maize to support the replacement strategy mentioned above it is essential that the ratio of energy output to energy input exceeds 1, but of course it should be as large as possible. Conclusions / findings: Results demonstrate that the influence of climate change is important and in many scenarios, acts to reduce yield, but that the negative effects can be partially mitigated by careful selection of farm management practices. Yield and carbon footprint is particularly sensitive to the application rate of fertilizer across all locations whilst climate change is the causal driver for the increase in net energy and carbon footprint at most locations. Nonetheless, in order to ensure a successful strategic move towards a low carbon future, and sustainable implementation of biofuel policies, this study provides valuable information for the Nigerian government and policy makers on potential AEZs to cultivate maize under climate change. Further research on the carbon footprint of alternative bioenergy feedstock to assess their environmental carbon footprint and net energy is strongly suggested. Originality / value of the article: This paper extends the review on the impact of climate change on maize production to include future impacts on net energy use and carbon footprint using a fully integrated assessment framework. Most studies focus only on current farm energy use and historical climate change impact on farm GHG emissions.

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Section: Modelling the Likely Impact Of Climate Change On The Yield Osupporting

confidence: 92%

The Impact of Climate Change on the Value of Growing Maize as a Biofuel

Olasogba

Duckers

2020

CEREM

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“…In addition, most crop models including the DSSAT model do not incorporate the explicit simulation of the heat impacts on male and female flowering, fertilization of female flowers, and kernel abortion which may lead to more uncertainties in predicting crop production under future climate scenarios 49 . Furthermore, although the DSSAT model performed well in simulating crop yield and nutrient cycling under various soil and crop management practices, the model does not simulate the direct impacts of pests and/or diseases, extreme weather (e.g., flooding, hails and damaging winds) and complex nutrient transfer processes 50 , which could lead to the uncertainties in the simulation. www.nature.com/scientificreports/…”

Section: Management Item Optimizedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China

Jiang

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Maize (Zea mays L.) production in Northeast China is vulnerable to climate change. Thus, exploring future adaptation measures for maize is crucial to developing sustainable agriculture to ensure food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize yield and partial factor productivity of nitrogen (PFPN) and explore potential adaptation strategies in Northeast China. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was calibrated and validated using the measurements from nine maize experiments. DSSAT performed well in simulating maize yield, biomass and N uptake for both calibration and validation periods (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) < 10%, −5% < normalized average relative error (nARE) < 5% and index of agreement (d) > 0.8). Compared to the baseline (1980–2010), the average maize yields and PFPN would decrease by 7.6–32.1% and 3.6–14.0 kg N kg−1 respectively under future climate scenarios (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) without adaptation. Optimizing N application rate and timing, establishing rotation system with legumes, adjusting planting dates and breeding long-season cultivars could be effective adaptation strategies to climate change. This study demonstrated that optimizing agronomic crop management practices would assist to make policy development on mitigating the negative impacts of future climate change on maize production.

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“…Other decision models developed in viticulture could be adapted to climate change studies: VERDI (Ripoche et al, 2011 ), or DHIVINE (Martin-Clouaire et al, 2016 ). However, Corbeels et al ( 2018 ) recently challenged the ability of crop models driven by climate model projections to identify promising adaptation, given the large uncertainties of model predictions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Strategies for Adaptation to Climate Change in Grapevine Production–A Systematic Review

et al. 2021

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In many areas of the world, maintaining grapevine production will require adaptation to climate change. While rigorous evaluations of adaptation strategies provide decision makers with valuable insights, those that are published often overlook major constraints, ignore local adaptive capacity, and suffer from a compartmentalization of disciplines and scales. The objective of our study was to identify current knowledge of evaluation methods and their limitations, reported in the literature. We reviewed 111 papers that evaluate adaptation strategies in the main vineyards worldwide. Evaluation approaches are analyzed through key features (e.g., climate data sources, methodology, evaluation criteria) to discuss their ability to address climate change issues, and to identify promising outcomes for climate change adaptations. We highlight the fact that combining adaptation levers in the short and long term (location, vine training, irrigation, soil, and canopy management, etc.) enables local compromises to be reached between future water availability and grapevine productivity. The main findings of the paper are three-fold: (1) the evaluation of a combination of adaptation strategies provides better solutions for adapting to climate change; (2) multi-scale studies allow local constraints and opportunities to be considered; and (3) only a small number of studies have developed multi-scale and multi-lever approaches to quantify feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation. In addition, we found that climate data sources were not systematically clearly presented, and that climate uncertainty was hardly accounted for. Moreover, only a small number of studies have assessed the economic impacts of adaptation, especially at farm scale. We conclude that the development of methodologies to evaluate adaptation strategies, considering both complementary adaptations and scales, is essential if relevant information is to be provided to the decision-makers of the wine industry.

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Can we use crop modelling for identifying climate change adaptation options?

Cited by 75 publications

References 42 publications

The Impact of Climate Change on the Value of Growing Maize as a Biofuel

The Impact of Climate Change on the Value of Growing Maize as a Biofuel

Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China

Evaluating Strategies for Adaptation to Climate Change in Grapevine Production–A Systematic Review

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