Candidate Ethnicity and Vote Choice in Britain

Abstract

This article develops and tests a set of theoretical mechanisms by which candidate ethnicity may have affected the party vote choice of both white British and ethnic minority voters in the 2010 British general election. Ethnic minority candidates suffered an average electoral penalty of about 4 per cent of the three-party vote from whites, mostly because those with anti-immigrant feelings were less willing to vote for Muslims. Ethnic minority voter responses to candidate ethnicity differed by ethnic group. There were no significant effects for non-Muslim Indian and black voters, while Pakistani candidates benefited from an 8-point average electoral bonus from Pakistani voters.Ethnic minorities are consistently under-represented in all democracies, 1 perhaps in part because majority voters discriminate against minority candidates. 2 Conversely, some research shows that visible minorities are more likely to vote for members of their own ethnic or racial group in the United States 3 and in proportional representation systems that allow preference voting. 4 While there is also evidence that candidate ethnicity affects voting in British elections, with one exception 5 this evidence has thus far been based on aggregate data or qualitative reports. There are also some interesting questions about the effects of candidate ethnicity that arise from the British context that can only now be addressed with high-quality individual-level survey data from the 2010 Ethnic Minority British Election Study. This article considers whether white British voters are more reluctant to vote for non-white candidates, and whether ethnic minority voters are more inclined to support non-white candidates, perhaps especially those from the same ethnic group.White British people perceive different minority groups differently, and Muslims receive among the most hostile reactions. 6 The terrorist attacks of

Do Muslim voters prefer Muslim candidates? Co-religiosity and voting behaviour in India

“…First, we do not find any evidence to suggest that the effect of Muslim candidature on Muslim voters depends upon the ethnic composition of the constituency. Unlike Carsey (1995) or Avery and Fine (2012), though in line with Fisher et al (2014) we found no tendency for the effect of minority candidature to depend on the ethnic composition of the constituency, nor for the Muslim candidate effect to be stronger where there is a greater proportion of Muslims. Similarly we do not find any evidence that the effect of Muslim candidature on Hindus varies by ethnic composition.…”

“…To measure the political incentives that may moderate the influence of candidate religion on voting behaviour we compute each party's Distance from Contention (for third and lower placed parties this is the difference between the 2012 share of the vote for the party and that for the second placed party, and 0 if the party came first or second in the constituency). This serves as a proxy for the local strength of the different parties, and distinguishes between those parties which voters might reasonably expect to have a realistic chance of winning (those which come first or second) and those parties which are less competitive (see also Fisher et al, 2014). 2 Candidates who come third or lower may therefore be strategically abandoned and considered irrelevant.…”

“…By contrast, a number of studies have also shown that minority candidates are discriminated against by majority voters in both the US (e.g. Terkildsen, 1993) and the UK (Stegmaier et al, 2013;Fisher et al, 2014). There is thus growing evidence that candidate ethnicity matters, and that minority candidates can receive either an electoral advantage from members of their in-group and/or an electoral penalty from members of their out-group.…”

The Role of the Church and Mosque in the Political Mobilization of Black African Immigrants in Finland at the Municipal Level

“…However, in the case above, ethnicity or immigrant status appears to hamper it. The impact of ethnicity on voting decision has been documented in research (Vermeersch 2011;Bergh and Bjorklund, 2011;Stegmaier, Lewis-Beck, and Smets 2013;Fisher et al 2015). Key findings indicate that visible minorities are more likely to vote for members of their own ethnic or racial group than otherwise, especially when they are victims of structural discrimination.…”

Candidate Ethnic Origins and Voter Preferences: Examining Name Discrimination in Local Elections in Britain

“…28 Stegmaier, Lewis-Beck, and Smets 2013, 283. 29 Fisher et al 2014. ballot paper. 30 In the context of this article, however, this lack of prior information is of no concern.…”