Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows

Gelos, Gastón; Górnicka, Lucyna; Sahay, Ratna; Sgherri, Silvia

doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103555

Cited by 43 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…In this context, policy authorities have found it useful to ascertain the magnitude of expected capital outfl ows at various probabilities in response to specifi c shocks. This has been termed as the capital fl ows at risk (CaR) approach (Gelos et al, 2021). Drawing on the fi nancial risk management literature, CaR takes a forward-looking perspective on risks to capital fl ows by asking what global and domestic conditions today can tell us about the probability and the size of future capital fl ows.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India. 1 Capital infl ows bring many benefi ts to countries because they supplement domestic investment, enhance effi ciency of production, promote fi nancial sector competitiveness, and facilitate consumption smoothing (Gelos et al, 2021). Capital infl ows should support growth through greater allocative effi ciency, better risk sharing and increased technological transfers (Carney, 2019).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It estimates the entire distribution of capital fl ows conditional upon various pull and push factors. By doing so, it takes into account volatility and higher moments of the distribution so as to assess the effect of a range of risk factors across different parts of the distributions at different horizons 2 (Eguren Martin et al, 2021;Gelos et al, 2021). The objective is to understand the following issues: what drives capital fl ow volatility in the Indian context so that appropriate policy responses can be fashioned?…”

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confidence: 99%

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Capital Flows at Risk: India’s Experience

Muduli,

Behera,

Patra

2022

SSRN Journal

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Capital Flows at Risk: India’s Experience

Muduli,

Behera,

Patra

2022

SSRN Journal

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“…FPI tends to fuel domestic consumption. On the other hand, FDI creates jobs and its effect on aggregate output and exports can be positive (e.g., see Anwar & Nguyen, 2011;Anwar & Sun, 2018;Gelos, Gornicka, Koepke, Sahay, & Sgherri, 2019) and hence MICs prefer FDI over FPI.…”

Section: The Mechanism Of Capital Inflow Leading To a Decrease In Dom...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sources of economic slowdown: A simultaneous equations approach

2020

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We explore the potential sources of slowdown in growth in a theoretical macroeconomic framework, from which we develop an empirical model consisting of a system of equations for the growth rate of GDP and the consumption share of GDP. Having estimated the basic model, we perform an extreme bounds analysis with a range of control variables as a robustness check on the results. In a sample of middle-income countries, an increase in the consumption ratio appears to be negatively associated with economic growth; foreign direct investment is found to be significantly associated with both economic growth and the consumption ratio. On considering sub-samples of Asian and Latin American countries, we find, in the Asian economies, that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the consumption ratio and economic growth while, in the Latin American economies, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the consumption ratio and growth but a U-shaped relationship between the government spending ratio and economic growth. In both sub-samples, the investment ratio is positively associated with growth.

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“…The capital flows-at-risk framework could be useful in modeling the distribution of net non-resident portfolio debt inflows to Malaysia. The analysis builds on the growth-at-risk (GaR) methodology by Prasad et al ( 2019) and adopts approach modifications for gross capital inflows by Goel and Miyajima (2021) and Gelos et al (2019). A quantile regression framework is applied to model average four-quarter-ahead net non-resident portfolio debt inflows, in percent of GDP (termed APDI for short) as a function of financial conditions, domestic macro conditions, domestic financial openness, and global commodity price fluctuations.…”

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confidence: 99%

Malaysia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malaysia

2022

IMF Staff Country Reports

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Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. In the context of the 2022 Article IV consultation with Malaysia, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:• A Press Release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its April 6, 2022 consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IV consultation with Malaysia.• The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board's consideration on April 6, 2022, following discussions that ended on February 9, 2022, with the officials of Malaysia on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on March 7, 2022.• An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff.• A Staff Statement updating information on recent developments.

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Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows

Cited by 43 publications

References 56 publications

Capital Flows at Risk: India’s Experience

Capital Flows at Risk: India’s Experience

Sources of economic slowdown: A simultaneous equations approach

Malaysia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malaysia

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