Capital Gains Sensitivity of US BBB-Rated Debt to US Treasury Market: Markov-Switching Analyses

Abstract

We reexamine the relationship between credit spreads and interest rates from a capital gain perspective of bond portfolio. Capital gain sensitivity between US BBB-rated bonds and Treasury bonds is weak and positive in normal periods, but strong and negative during recessions. In the upward phase of business cycles, changes in interest rates are fully reflected in the bond yields, leaving spreads unchanged, while in the downward phase, rates and spreads move in opposite directions. This alternation between two distinct regimes reconciles a long-standing division in the literature. We then discuss the efficiency of shorting Treasury bonds as a hedging strategy and policy suggestions.