Capital Preferences: International Capital and Government Partisanship

Tomashevskiy, Andrey

doi:10.1111/isqu.12211

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…The same is true for electoral preferences, which clearly change over time, some of which lasts to impact the outcome and some does not (Erikson and Wlezien, 2012). We also see evidence of short-term and enduring changes in studies of political economy, such as the determinants of global capital mobility (Ahlquist, 2006) and its electoral consequences (Tomashevskiy, 2015). It may be that most seemingly “pure” integrated series actually are combined, where in addition to shocks to the series that cumulate over time there are shocks that decay.…”

Section: Identifying True Relationships With Mixed Orders Of Integrationmentioning

confidence: 89%

Detecting true relationships in time series data with different orders of integration

Enns

Moehlecke

Wlezien

2021

PSRM

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It is fairly well-known that proper time series analysis requires that estimated equations be balanced. Numerous scholars mistake this to mean that one cannot mix orders of integration. Previous studies have clarified the distinction between equation balance and having different orders of integration, and shown that mixing orders of integration does not increase the risk of type I error when using the general error correction/autoregressive distributed lag (GECM/ADL) models, that is, so long as equations are balanced (and other modeling assumptions are met). This paper builds on that research to assess the consequences for type II error when employing those models. Specifically, we consider cases where a true relationship exists, the left- and right-hand sides of the equation mix orders of integration, and the equation still is balanced. Using the asymptotic case, we find that the different orders of integration do not preclude identification of the true relationship using the GECM/ADL. We then highlight that estimation is trickier in practice, over finite time, as data sometimes do not reveal the underlying process. But, simulations show that even in these cases, researchers will typically draw accurate inferences as long as they select their models based on the observed characteristics of the data and test to be sure that standard model assumptions are met. We conclude by considering the implications for researchers analyzing or conducting simulations with time series data.

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Section: Identifying True Relationships With Mixed Orders Of Integrationmentioning

confidence: 89%

Detecting true relationships in time series data with different orders of integration

Enns

Moehlecke

Wlezien

2021

PSRM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…If parties are unequally dependent on business funding, this will influence how they construct their interests in political finance reform (Koß, 2011; Scarrow, 2004). The way in which broader public policy affects funders will depend on whether those funders represent the business sector (McMenamin, 2012: 9–13; Tomashevskiy, 2015). If some parties are more dependent on business than others, this will affect public opinion on political finance, especially preferences on the regulation of business donations and the political construction of scandals (Fisher, 2015a; McMenamin, 2015).…”

Section: Business Preferences and Political Financementioning

confidence: 99%

Party Identification, the Policy Space and Business Donations to Political Parties

McMenamin

2019

Political Studies

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Political finance scholars have paid little attention to the partisan preferences of business donors. This was because business donors were overwhelmingly concerned with the left-right dimension and enjoyed stable relationships with centre-right parties. These parties are increasingly tempted by economic nationalism. This new ideological flux provides an opportunity to measure the extent to which donors are party identifiers or react to changes in the policy space. Dramatic shifts in party policy on both the left-right and globalisation dimensions and a relatively transparent political finance regime make the United Kingdom a particularly apposite case to study this question. I analyse 19,000 donations to the Conservative Party and show that business donors reacted strongly to recent shifts on both the left-right and globalisation dimensions. Thus, centre-right parties may not be able to rely on party identification and their left-right position to maintain business funding. Economic nationalism is likely to cost centre-right parties money.

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“…If parties are unequally dependent on business funding, this will influence how they construct their interests in political finance reform (Koß 2011;Scarrow 2004). The way in which broader public policy affects funders will depend on whether those funders represent the business sector (McMenamin 2012, 9-13;Tomashevskiy 2015). If some parties are more dependent on business than others, this will affect public opinion on political finance, especially preferences on the regulation of business donations and the political construction of scandals (Fisher 2015a;McMenamin 2015).…”

Section: Business Preferences and Political Financementioning

confidence: 99%

If Money Talks, What Does It Say About Brexit?

McMenamin

2018

SSRN Journal

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Political finance scholars have paid little attention to the partisan preferences of business donors. This was because business donors were overwhelmingly concerned with the left-right dimension and enjoyed stable relationships with centre-right parties. These parties are increasingly tempted by nationalist positions on a globalisation dimension. This new ideological flux provides an opportunity to measure the extent to which donors are party identifiers or react to changes in the policy space. Dramatic shifts in party policy on both dimensions and a relatively transparent political finance regime make the UK a particularly apposite case to study this question. I analyse 19,000 donations to the Conservative Party and show that business donors reacted strongly to recent shifts on both the left-right and globalisation dimensions. Thus, centre-right parties cannot rely on party identification and their left-right position to maintain business funding. Economic nationalism costs centre-right parties money.

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Capital Preferences: International Capital and Government Partisanship

Cited by 4 publications

References 70 publications

Detecting true relationships in time series data with different orders of integration

Detecting true relationships in time series data with different orders of integration

Party Identification, the Policy Space and Business Donations to Political Parties

If Money Talks, What Does It Say About Brexit?

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