Caracterización de las sequías mediante la comparación de tres índices multiescalares en Zacatecas, México

Ortíz-Gómez, Ruperto; Cardona-Díaz, Julio C.; Ortiz-Robles, Fidel A.; Alvarado-Medellin, Pedro

doi:10.24850/j-tyca-2018-03-03

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…In general, the studied area is characterized by frequent and, in some cases, severe drought intensity in the central and northern parts of the state, where the main agricultural areas are located. These results are in general agreement with those obtained by other studies analyzing drought in the state of Zacatecas using different meteorological drought indices, among them the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [42,58,96], the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) [42,58], and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) [42]. These studies found that the most severe droughts occurred during the study period between 2005 and 2011 [58,96], and they also identified the most important dry periods, such as 1995-1997, 1999-2001, and 2011-2012 [41,42].…”

Section: Areas Affected By Agricultural Droughtsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…In the case of Mexico, there are very few comprehensive assessments of drought risk using spatially and temporally consistent information on the possible hazard complemented by exposure factors and drought vulnerability [37]. The vast majority of research on drought carried out in the country has focused on evaluating the meteorological drought hazard based on rainfall records obtained from weather stations (i.e., [38][39][40][41][42]). However, weather stations are not evenly distributed in the country, and fewer and fewer stations remain operational due to a lack of maintenance budget and personnel, which is why historical climatological records are not spatially or temporally consistent and they must be subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling processes [43,44].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We used the state of Zacatecas as a case study and an example of the study method. The state is located in a semi-arid region of national agricultural importance, and it suffers the effects of drought with some regularity [41,42]. For instance, Zacatecas lost 478 million dollars in rainfed agricultural production due to drought in 10 years (2005-2014); 2005, 2009, and 2011 were the most critical, with economic losses of 47%, 39%, and 63%, respectively [58].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability in Zacatecas, Mexico

Ortega-Gaucin

Ceballos-Tavares

Sánchez

et al. 2021

Water

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Drought is one of the major threats to water and food security in many regions around the world. The present study focuses on the evaluation of agricultural drought risk from an integrated perspective, that is, emphasizing the combined role of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to drought. For this purpose, we used the Mexican state of Zacatecas as a case study. This state is one of the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of agricultural drought in the country. The proposed method includes three stages: first, we analyzed the risk of agricultural drought at the municipal scale using the FAO Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) in its country version (Country-Level ASIS) and also determined a Drought Hazard Index (DHI). Subsequently, we conducted a municipal assessment of exposure and vulnerability to drought based on a set of socioeconomic and environmental indicators, which we combined using an analytical procedure to generate the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) and the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI). Finally, we determined a Drought Risk Index (DRI) based on a weighted addition of the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indices. Results showed that 32% of the state’s municipalities are at high and very high risk of agricultural drought; these municipalities are located mainly in the center and north of the state, where 75.8% of agriculture is rainfed, 63.6% of production units are located, and 67.4% of the state’s population depends on agricultural activity. These results are in general agreement with those obtained by other studies analyzing drought in the state of Zacatecas using different meteorological drought indices, and the results are also largely in line with official data on agricultural surfaces affected by drought in this state. The generated maps can help stakeholders and public policymakers to guide investments and actions aimed at reducing vulnerability to and risk of agricultural drought. The method described can also be applied to other Mexican states or adapted for use in other states or countries around the world.

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Section: Areas Affected By Agricultural Droughtsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability in Zacatecas, Mexico

Ortega-Gaucin

Ceballos-Tavares

Sánchez

et al. 2021

Water

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“…The predominant climate in most of Zacatecas is dry and semi-dry (73%); 17% of the territory, in the east of the state, is temperate subhumid; in 6% of the territory, mainly the north and northeast regions, the climate is very dry, and the remaining 4% of the state, in the south and southwest, (e) soil use and vegetation. Source: prepared by the authors using data from [43][44][45][46].…”

Section: Description Of Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Anomalies and Trends of Climate Change Indices in Zacatecas, Mexico

Pita-Díaz

Ortega-Gaucin

2020

Climate

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Sufficient evidence is currently available to demonstrate the reality of the warming of our planet’s climate system. Global warming has different effects on climate at the regional and local levels. The detection of changes in extreme events using instrumental data provides further evidence of such warming and allows for the characterization of its local manifestations. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mexican state of Zacatecas using climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). We studied a 40-year period (1976–2015) using annual and seasonal time series. Maximum and minimum temperature data were used, as well as precipitation statistics from the Mexican climatology database (CLICOM) provided by the Mexican Meteorological Service. Weather stations with at least 80% of data availability for the selected study period were selected; these databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, which runs in the R programming language. These homogenized series were used to obtain daily grids of the three variables at a resolution of 1.3 km. Results reveal important changes in temperature-related indices, such as the increase in maximum temperature and the decrease in minimum temperature. Irregular variability was observed in the case of precipitation, which could be associated with low-frequency oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The possible impact of these changes in temperature and the increased irregularity of precipitation could have a negative impact on the agricultural sector, especially given that the state of Zacatecas is the largest national bean producer. The most important problems in the short term will be related to the difficulty of adapting to these rapid changes and the new climate scenario, which will pose new challenges in the future.

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“…The dry and semi-dry climate of the state is a limitation for agriculture, which is irrigated and seasonal and is one of the main economic activities in the state. [41].…”

Section: Description Of Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Anomalies and Trends of Climate Change Indices in the State of Zacatecas, Mexico

Pita-Díaz¹,

Ortega-Gaucin²

2020

Preprint

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Sufficient evidence is currently available to demonstrate the reality of the warming of our planet's climate system. Global warming has different effects on climate at the regional and local levels. The detection of changes in extreme events using instrumental data provides further evidence of such warming and allows for the characterization of its local manifestations. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mexican state of Zacatecas using climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDI). We studied a 40-year period (1976-2015) using annual and seasonal time scales. Maximum and minimum temperature data were used, as well as precipitation statistics from the Mexican climatology database (CLICOM) provided by the Mexican meteorological service. Weather stations with at least 80% of data availability for the selected study period were selected; these databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, which runs in the R programming language. These homogenized series were used to obtain daily grides of the three variables at a resolution of 1.3 km. Results reveal important changes in temperature-related indices, such as the increase in maximum temperature and the decrease in minimum temperature. Irregular variability was observed in the case of precipitation, which could be associated with low-frequency oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The possible impact of these changes in temperature and the increased irregularity of precipitation could have a negative impact on the agricultural sector, especially given that the state of Zacatecas is the largest national bean producer. The most important problems in the short term will be related to the difficulty of adapting to these rapid changes and the new climate scenario, which will pose new challenges in the future.

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Caracterización de las sequías mediante la comparación de tres índices multiescalares en Zacatecas, México

Abstract: La sequía es uno de los desastres naturales más frecuentes en el centro-norte de México, y su identificación y caracterización son cruciales para tratar de mitigar sus efectos. Se analizó la evolución de las sequías meteorológicas en

Cited by 18 publications

References 27 publications

Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability in Zacatecas, Mexico

Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability in Zacatecas, Mexico

Analysis of Anomalies and Trends of Climate Change Indices in Zacatecas, Mexico

Analysis of Anomalies and Trends of Climate Change Indices in the State of Zacatecas, Mexico

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