Aim
To determine the predictive significance of the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) combined with the CHA
2
DS
2
-VAS
c
score for cardiogenic cerebral embolism (CCE) in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).
Methods
A total of 553 patients with NVAF were included in this retrospective study. The general data, PLR, CHA
2
DS
2
-VAS
c
score and echocardiography indicators were compared. The risk factors for CCE and the predictive value of PLR and CHA
2
DS
2
-VAS
c
were analyzed. Stratified analysis was performed based on the cut-off value. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was utilized to build a model. The relationship between risk score and different anticoagulants was evaluated.
Results
Multiple regression analysis showed hypertension (OR=3.95, 95% CI=2.12–7.35,
p
=1.40×10
−5
), diabetes mellitus (OR=2.95, 95% CI=1.57–5.58,
p
=7.65×10
−4
), PLR (OR=1.01, 95% CI=1.00–1.01,
p
<10
−6
), creatinine level (OR=1.01, 95% CI=1.00–1.02,
p
=7.44×10
−3
), left atrial diameter (LAD) (OR=1.90, 95% CI=1.13–3.19,
p
=1.51×10
−2
), ejection fraction (EF) (OR=0.93, 95% CI=0.87–0.98,
p
=8.06×10
−3
) and CHA
2
DS
2
-VAS
c
score (OR=3.79, 95% CI=2.95–4.85,
p
<10
−6
) were independent risk factors for CCE. A one-way linear analysis also showed the above seven indexes were significantly correlated with CCE (
F
=56.4,
p
<10
−6
). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of PLR and CHA
2
DS
2
-VAS
c
score was 0.760 (95% CI:0.721–0.800), and 0.855 (95% CI: 0.824–0.886), respectively. Pearson correlation analysis showed that PLR was correlated with CHA
2
DS
2
-VAS
c
score (r=0.331,
p
<10
−6
). Stratified analysis indicated there was a positive correlation between different risk group (
p
<10
−6
). Using the LASSO model, a composite indicator displayed differential power for distinguishing CCE with an AUC value of 0.884 (95% CI: 0.857–0.911). Patient...