Cartographie de l’aléa pluviographique de la France

Arnaud, Patrick; Lavabre, Jacques; Sol, B.; Desouches, Christine

doi:10.1051/lhb:2006094

Cited by 9 publications

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“…The development, calibration, regionalisation and validation of this generator have been the object of numerous studies [47,[76][77][78] and are not within the scope of this paper. This generator is included in national guidance for rainfall prediction in France [79].…”

Section: Process-based Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Flood Frequency Analysis Methods for Ungauged Catchments in France

Odry¹,

Arnaud²

2017

Geosciences

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Abstract:The objective of flood frequency analysis (FFA) is to associate flood intensity with a probability of exceedance. Many methods are currently employed for this, ranging from statistical distribution fitting to simulation approaches. In many cases the site of interest is actually ungauged, and a regionalisation scheme has to be associated with the FFA method, leading to a multiplication of the number of possible methods available. This paper presents the results of a wide-range comparison of FFA methods from statistical and simulation families associated with different regionalisation schemes based on regression, or spatial or physical proximity. The methods are applied to a set of 1535 French catchments, and a k-fold cross-validation procedure is used to consider the ungauged configuration. The results suggest that FFA from the statistical family largely relies on the regionalisation step, whereas the simulation-based method is more stable regarding regionalisation. This conclusion emphasises the difficulty of the regionalisation process. The results are also contrasted depending on the type of climate: the Mediterranean catchments tend to aggravate the differences between the methods.

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Section: Process-based Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Flood Frequency Analysis Methods for Ungauged Catchments in France

Odry¹,

Arnaud²

2017

Geosciences

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“…A regionalized version of the rainfall generator was parameterized according to daily data based on the knowledge of three parameters, leading to relevant results (Arnaud et al 2006). In fact, unifying the model makes it perfectly applicable to regions with varied rainfall ranges, such as metropolitan France, Reunion island in the Indian Ocean, and Martinique island in the Caribbean .…”

Section: The Hourly Rainfall Generator: Shyprementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, unifying the model makes it perfectly applicable to regions with varied rainfall ranges, such as metropolitan France, Reunion island in the Indian Ocean, and Martinique island in the Caribbean . The regionalization of the three model parameters, using 2,812 daily rain gauge stations in the whole of France (Sol and Desouches 2005), allows the estimation of rainfall quantiles for different time durations on a square of 1 km 2 everywhere in the French territory (Arnaud et al 2006). For the Languedoc-Roussillon region, the obtained results have been compared to those of an another regional approach (Neppel et al 2007).…”

Section: The Hourly Rainfall Generator: Shyprementioning

confidence: 99%

Using a rainfall stochastic generator to detect trends in extreme rainfall

Cantet¹,

Bacro

Arnaud³

2010

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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This study aims to describe regional pattern of extreme rainfall based on maximum daily rainfall for period 1983 to 2012 in Java Island. Descriptive statistics analysis was performed to obtain centralization, variation and distribution of maximum precipitation data. Mean and median are utilized to measure central tendency data while Inter Quartile Range (IQR) and standard deviation are utilized to measure variation of data. In addition, skewness and kurtosis used to obtain shape the distribution of rainfall data. Cluster analysis using squared euclidean distance and ward method is applied to perform regional grouping. Result of this study show that mean (average) of maximum daily rainfall in Java Region during period 1983-2012 is around 80-181mm with median between 75-160mm and standard deviation between 17 to 82. Cluster analysis produces four clusters and show that western area of Java tent to have a higher annual maxima of daily rainfall than northern area, and have more variety of annual maximum value.

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“…Dans ce contexte, la méthode SHYREG, basée sur une régionalisation de la méthode SHYPRE (ARNAUD et LAVABRE, 1999;ARNAUD et LAVABRE, 2001;ARNAUD et LAVABRE, 2002;ARNAUD et al, 2006;ARNAUD et al, 2007), a la particularité de synthétiser l'ensemble de l'information pluie et de l'information débit d'une région, pour proposer des estimations de débits de crue en tout point du réseau hydrographique de cette région.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Régionalisation d'une méthode de prédétermination de crue sur l'ensemble du territoire français : la méthode SHYREG

Organde

Arnaud²,

Fine

et al. 2013

rseau

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La méthode SHYREG a été développée pour la connaissance régionale des quantiles de débits de crue (débit de pointe et lames d'eau maximales écoulées sur les durées de 1 h à 72 h) pour les périodes de retour de 2 à 100 ans suivant une approche spatialisée. Elle associe un simulateur de pluies horaires et une modélisation simple pluie-débit, mis en oeuvre à une résolution kilométrique. Les quantiles de débits se déduisent directement des distributions de fréquence empiriques des valeurs maximales extraites des très longues chroniques de débit simulées. On obtient alors une base de quantiles de crues que l'on peut agréger à l'échelle de n'importe quel bassin versant, moyennant une règle d'abattement avec la surface. La régionalisation de la méthode a été réalisée sur la France métropolitaine, à l'exclusion de la Corse, en exploitant les données hydrométriques de 1 359 stations de jaugeage et des caractéristiques hydro-climatiques et hydrogéologiques spatialisées permettant de décrire la variabilité du paramètre saisonnier du modèle. Au final, cette régionalisation permet la connaissance des quantiles de débits de crue en tout bassin versant de la France métropolitaine avec une bonne restitution des quantiles de débit de pointe et journalier, pour les périodes de retour comprises entre 2 et 10 ans : un critère de Nash minimum de 80 % est obtenu sur les quantiles de débit de pointe pseudo-spécifique et de débit journalier spécifique des bassins versants non utilisés pour la régionalisation.The SHYREG method was developed for regional flood frequency analysis to estimate peak flow and flood discharges for various durations (1 h to 72 h) and return periods (2 to 100 years), according to a spatialized approach. For each 1-km2 pixel, the method combines an hourly rainfall model with a simple rainfall-runoff model. The discharge flood frequency estimates are deduced directly from the empirical frequency distributions for the maximum values, which are extracted from very long simulated discharge time series. This gives a database of 1-km2 gridded flood quantiles that can be aggregated for any catchment by using an areal averaging method. The method was regionalized for metropolitan France, excluding Corsica, using flow data from 1,359 gauging stations and regional hydroclimatic and hydrogeological characteristics to describe the variability of the rainfall-runoff model parameter. Such regionalization provides flood discharge quantiles for any catchment in metropolitan France for various durations and return periods. Regarding the method performance, accurate estimates of flood quantiles were produced for peak discharge and mean daily discharge for return periods of two to 10 years for gauged basins in dependent validation and cross-validation. A minimum NASH criterion of 80% is obtained for peak flow and mean daily discharge for the catchments not used in the regionalization process

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Cartographie de l’aléa pluviographique de la France

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Comparison of Flood Frequency Analysis Methods for Ungauged Catchments in France

Comparison of Flood Frequency Analysis Methods for Ungauged Catchments in France

Using a rainfall stochastic generator to detect trends in extreme rainfall

Régionalisation d'une méthode de prédétermination de crue sur l'ensemble du territoire français : la méthode SHYREG

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