Catch Predictions in Stock Assessment and Management of Invertebrate Fisheries Using Pre-Recruit Abundance—Case Studies from Western Australia

The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest

“…Not surprisingly, spawner abundance alone has historically not been a reliable predictor of recruitment variability in most crustaceans (Wahle ) and fishes (Schindler and Hilborn ), but models that incorporate environmental variability in addition to, or as proxies for, spawner abundance have had more success (Caputi et al. ). A longstanding concern with these models, however, is that the relationships between environmental variability and recruitment can be transient (Myers , Schindler and Hilborn ).…”

“…A similar postlarval settlement index forecasting approach has long been used in the Western Australia rock lobster (Panulirus cygnus) fishery, although, in that case, time lags are shorter and thermal gradients less steep (Caputi et al 1995). Not surprisingly, spawner abundance alone has historically not been a reliable predictor of recruitment variability in most crustaceans (Wahle 2003) and fishes (Schindler and Hilborn 2015), but models that incorporate environmental variability in addition to, or as proxies for, spawner abundance have had more success (Caputi et al 2014). A longstanding concern with these models, however, is that the relationships between environmental variability and recruitment can be transient (Myers 1998, Schindler andHilborn 2015).…”

Maximum economic yield of the western rock lobster fishery of Western Australia after moving from effort to quota control

“…This represents a significant advantage over assuming an average recruitment in the stock assessment modelling, even if the latter approach accounts for recruitment variation. Predictions based on the pre-recruit abundance are generally robust providing industry and fishery managers a greater level of certainty in the management settings [15]. This has been particularly important during the period of low recruitment due to the low puerulus settlement over 7 years, 2006/07 to 2012/13.…”

Commercial scale invertebrate fisheries enhancement in Australia: Experiences, challenges and opportunities

“…While the economic viability will always be subject to the uncertainty inherent in stock-recruitment-environment relationships, predictive models linking known recruitment to future abundance, i.e. replacement rather than recruitment prediction [100,101], are generally more reliable than those which predict future recruitment from existing spawning stocks [13,69]. Theoretical and empirical emphasis on the replacement equation [101], largely ignored in the literature to date [101], will become necessary to assist in developing viable enhancement programmes.…”

“…Management of major invertebrate fisheries in Australia is predicated on the assumptions of a reliable stock-recruitmentenvironment relationship for many species [14]. For example, in Western Australia this reliability has arisen from both accurate measures of recruitment and predictions of future stock abundance arising from that recruitment [69]. The economic value of natural recruitment is manifested in catch tonnages and subsequent income from the harvest and it operates in a highly defined and functioning free-market.…”