Causal Links on Interannual Timescale Between ENSO and the IOD in CMIP5 Future Simulations

Le, Thanh; Bae, Deg‐Hyo

doi:10.1029/2018gl081633

Cited by 21 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…This test results in a probability for no causal effect of the considered variable Y on evaporation. Additional information on the test of Granger causality is explained in earlier works (e.g., Le, 2015;Le et al, 2016). The techniques employed in the present study, which are designed to detect the causal relationship, provide a robust assessment about the causal influence of the considered climate mode on global evaporation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of global evaporation to major climate modes in historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations

Bae

2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Climate extremes, such as floods and droughts, might have severe economic and societal impacts. Given the high costs associated with these events, developing early-warning systems is of high priority. Evaporation, which is driven by around 50 % of solar energy absorbed at surface of the Earth, is an important indicator of the global water budget, monsoon precipitation, drought monitoring and the hydrological cycle. Here we investigate the response of global evaporation to main modes of interannual climate variability, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These climate modes may have an influence on temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and wind speed and are likely to have impacts on global evaporation. We utilized data of historical simulations and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway) future simulations derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results indicate that ENSO is an important driver of evaporation for many regions, especially the tropical Pacific. The significant IOD influence on evaporation is limited in western tropical Indian Ocean, while NAO is more likely to have impacts on evaporation of the North Atlantic European areas. There is high agreement between models in simulating the effects of climate modes on evaporation of these regions. Land evaporation is found to be less sensitive to considered climate modes compared to oceanic evaporation. The spatial influence of major climate modes on global evaporation is slightly more significant for NAO and the IOD and slightly less significant for ENSO in the 1906–2000 period compared to the 2006–2100 period. This study allows us to obtain insight about the predictability of evaporation and hence, may improve the early-warning systems of climate extremes and water resource management.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of global evaporation to major climate modes in historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations

Bae

2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Although there is no inter-model consensus on how interactions between ENSO and Indian Ocean variability will change under greenhouse warming 144 , the inter-basin warming contrasts might vary with time, inducing non-unidirectional projected changes in ENSO, as previously demonstrated in the case of a projected relative warming between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean 63 . However, the impact of the Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean future warming on future ENSO is likely to be underestimated in climate models, because the simulated present-day inter-basin interactions are underestimated 37,41,90,94 .…”

Section: Inter-basin Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Cai

Santoso

Collins

et al. 2021

Nat Rev Earth Environ

351

207

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Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections -the Pacific-North American and Pacific-South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections.

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“…VRF was found to have a significant influence on ENSO variability from 850 to 1850 (Le, 2017; Zuo et al, 2018) and robust relationship may thus exist between the ENSO and IOD (e.g. Cai et al, 2011; Le & Bae, 2019). Hence, the IOD’s responses may be mediated by ENSO processes, and the models’ capacities to simulate the ENSO-IOD relationship may create discrepancies in the causal effects of VRF on the IOD.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

The Indian Ocean Dipole response to external forcing in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 simulations of the last millennium

Bae

2021

The Holocene

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The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a major mode of interannual climate variability, but its response to external climate forcings (i.e. solar forcing, volcanic radiative forcing (VRF) and greenhouse gas (GHG) radiative forcing) remains elusive. To improve our understanding of the variability of the IOD, it is necessary to investigate the IOD’s response to external forcings through multi-model simulations. Here a Granger causality test is used to examine the impact of external forcings on the IOD from past 1000 years simulations (850–1850 Common Era) derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The results show significant causal effects of VRF on the IOD in preindustrial times of the past 1000 years from the MPI-ESM-P, MRI-CGCM3, GISS-E2-R and CCSM4 models and uncertainties in the IOD’s responses to volcanic eruptions from other six models. Additionally, the phase responses (i.e. positive or negative) of the IOD to large volcanic eruptions remain unclear even from models showing significant causal impacts of VRF on the IOD. This result shows that the IOD exhibits a more complex response to volcanic forcing than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The causal impact of solar forcing on the IOD is more likely to be weak in most models. The IOD’s response to GHG variations is not significant across all the models due to minor fluctuations in GHGs occurring during preindustrial times of the past 1000 years. Further analyses based on new, improved and higher resolution models might further our understanding of the IOD’s responses to external forcing.

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Causal Links on Interannual Timescale Between ENSO and the IOD in CMIP5 Future Simulations

Cited by 21 publications

References 39 publications

Response of global evaporation to major climate modes in historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations

Response of global evaporation to major climate modes in historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations

Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

The Indian Ocean Dipole response to external forcing in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 simulations of the last millennium

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