Causality Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Reserves: Serbian Case

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to determine the relationship between the exchange rate (nominal and real) and foreign exchange reserves based on monthly data for the period from September 2006 to April 2019, using unit root tests and cointegration tests that take into account the possibility of structural break existence. The results of the causality test indicate that there is a long-term relationship between the nominal exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves. On the other hand, the existence of a long-term relationship between the real exchange rate and the foreign exchange reserves has not been confirmed, but there is a short-term causality, that is, the real exchange rate Granger-causes foreign exchange reserves.