Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Boé, Julien; Ciais, Philippe; Lecerf, Rémi; Velde, Marijn van der; Makowski, David

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04087-x

Cited by 160 publications

(169 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Secondly, this approach may lead to the discovery of unexpected (combinations of) weather events that result in extreme impacts (Smith 2011). Nonlinear meteorologyimpact relationships generally hide such 'Black Swan' events (Nassim 2007, Ben-Ari et al 2018. Finally, estimates of risk or changes therein can be computed directly from the full distribution of impact data.…”

Section: Methods: Event Selection Based On Extreme Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions

Wiel

Selten

Bintanja

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The investigation of risk due to weather and climate events is an example of policy relevant science. Risk is the result of complex interactions between the physical environment (geophysical events or conditions, including but not limited to weather and climate events) and societal factors (vulnerability and exposure). The societal impact of two similar meteorological events at different times or different locations may therefore vary widely. Despite the complex relation between meteorological conditions and impacts, most meteorological research is focused on the occurrence or severity of extreme meteorological events, and climate impact research often undersamples climatological natural variability. Here we argue that an approach of ensemble climate-impact modelling is required to adequately investigate the relationship between meteorology and extreme impact events. We demonstrate that extreme weather conditions do not always lead to extreme impacts; in contrast, extreme impacts may result from (coinciding) moderate weather conditions. Explicit modelling of climate impacts, using the complete distribution of weather realisations, is thus necessary to ensure that the most extreme impact events are identified. The approach allows for the investigation of highimpact meteorological conditions and provides higher accuracy for consequent estimates of risk.

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Section: Methods: Event Selection Based On Extreme Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions

Wiel

Selten

Bintanja

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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show abstract

“…Decreased crop production after dry conditions has been reported worldwide over the last decades (The Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database, n.d.; Lesk, Rowhani, & Ramankutty, ). These substantial drops in production result from the negative effect of dry conditions (Farooq, Wahid, Kobayashi, Fujita, & Basra, ; Flexas, Bota, Loreto, Cornic, & Sharkey, ) and abnormally warm temperatures (Ben‐Ari et al, ) on photosynthesis and seedling growth. A predicted increase of drought events in the future (Dai, ) adds urgency to the challenge of understanding crop responses to water stress.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neither xylem collapse, cavitation, or changing leaf conductance drive stomatal closure in wheat

Corso

Delzon

Lamarque

et al. 2020

Plant Cell & Environment

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Identifying the drivers of stomatal closure and leaf damage during stress in grasses is a critical prerequisite for understanding crop resilience. Here, we investigated whether changes in stomatal conductance (gs) during dehydration were associated with changes in leaf hydraulic conductance (Kleaf), xylem cavitation, xylem collapse, and leaf cell turgor in wheat (Triticum aestivum). During soil dehydration, the decline of gs was concomitant with declining Kleaf under mild water stress. This early decline of leaf hydraulic conductance was not driven by cavitation, as the first cavitation events in leaf and stem were detected well after Kleaf had declined. Xylem vessel deformation could only account for <5% of the observed decline in leaf hydraulic conductance during dehydration. Thus, we concluded that changes in the hydraulic conductance of tissues outside the xylem were responsible for the majority of Kleaf decline during leaf dehydration in wheat. However, the contribution of leaf resistance to whole plant resistance was less than other tissues (<35% of whole plant resistance), and this proportion remained constant as plants dehydrated, indicating that Kleaf decline during water stress was not a major driver of stomatal closure.

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“…A well-documented example is the shift in the climatic suitability for wine production, which was spatially mostly confined to Mediterranean, southern maritime, and Pannonian regions in Europe (Hannah et al, 2013), and which expanded in the recent period in several regions of central and western Europe (Spinoni et al, 2015). In addition to more frequent and intense heat waves and droughts, anomalous wet conditions have often significantly contributed to crop yield reduction (Ben-Ari et al, 2018;Brisson et al, 2010;Ceglar et al, 2018;Olesen et al, 2017;Trnka et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

et al. 2019

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This study focuses on the northward shift of homogeneous agro-climate zones in Europe analyzed for the observed past and projected climate conditions for the next decades. Statistical cluster analysis is used to derive eight main agro-climatic zones driven by two agro-meteorological indicators, namely, active temperature sum and thermal growing season length. The northward shift of homogeneous agro-climate zones and the corresponding change of crop growth suitability are analyzed together with the change of exposure of crops to temperature-related climate extremes during the growing season. Gradual warming over Europe has contributed to a lengthening of the growing season and an increased active temperature accumulation, accompanied by more frequent occurrence of warm extreme climate events. Using a set of five high-resolution regional climate scenarios, we calculate that a major part of Europe will be affected by further northward climate zone migration. In the next decades, the migration of agro-climatic zones in Eastern Europe may reach twice the velocity observed during the period 1975-2016. Several regions of the Mediterranean may lose suitability to grow specific crops in favor of northern European regions. This indicator-based assessment suggests that the potential advantages of the lengthening of the thermal growing season in northern and eastern Europe are often outbalanced by the risk of late frost and increased risk of early spring and summer heat waves.

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Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France

Cited by 160 publications

References 55 publications

Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions

Ensemble climate-impact modelling: extreme impacts from moderate meteorological conditions

Neither xylem collapse, cavitation, or changing leaf conductance drive stomatal closure in wheat

Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

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