Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

Abstract

This study focuses on the northward shift of homogeneous agro-climate zones in Europe analyzed for the observed past and projected climate conditions for the next decades. Statistical cluster analysis is used to derive eight main agro-climatic zones driven by two agro-meteorological indicators, namely, active temperature sum and thermal growing season length. The northward shift of homogeneous agro-climate zones and the corresponding change of crop growth suitability are analyzed together with the change of exposure of crops to temperature-related climate extremes during the growing season. Gradual warming over Europe has contributed to a lengthening of the growing season and an increased active temperature accumulation, accompanied by more frequent occurrence of warm extreme climate events. Using a set of five high-resolution regional climate scenarios, we calculate that a major part of Europe will be affected by further northward climate zone migration. In the next decades, the migration of agro-climatic zones in Eastern Europe may reach twice the velocity observed during the period 1975-2016. Several regions of the Mediterranean may lose suitability to grow specific crops in favor of northern European regions. This indicator-based assessment suggests that the potential advantages of the lengthening of the thermal growing season in northern and eastern Europe are often outbalanced by the risk of late frost and increased risk of early spring and summer heat waves.

Large zonal and temporal shifts in crops and cultivars coincide with warmer growing seasons in Finland

“…The agro-climate zones will migrate northwards and the suitable areas for crop growth will change in Europe due to climate warming (Ceglar et al 2019). Gradual warming has already contributed to a lengthening of the growing season in favour of the northern Europe (Ceglar et al 2019).…”

“…The agro-climate zones will migrate northwards and the suitable areas for crop growth will change in Europe due to climate warming (Ceglar et al 2019). Gradual warming has already contributed to a lengthening of the growing season in favour of the northern Europe (Ceglar et al 2019). Due to climate change, the growing season in Europe will be prolonged in by 1.5-2 months by the end of this century in the RCP8.5 scenario (Ruosteenoja et al 2016).…”

“…The likelihood having of years without a thermal winter (the daily mean temperature < 0°C) will increase markedly by 2040-2069 (Ruosteenoja et al 2019). Ceglar et al (2019) estimated that the northward migration of agro-climate zones may be two times faster in the next decades than over the past 40 years. Changes in crop and cultivar choices are anticipated as advances in the sowing time become likely (Kaukoranta and Hakala 2008), which together with the changing climate are apt to alter phenological development especially in Northern Europe (Olesen et al 2012).…”

Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

“…This limitation can be justified by considering that shifts will not be very large (with respect to the temporal framework of the method) and that changes in cultivars would limit the anticipated advance of wheat phenology (Dixit et al 2018;Rezaei et al 2018). Other potential forms of adaptations such as shift in growing areas (Ceglar et al 2019) are not considered in this study. In order to reduce the impacts of these assumptions, we limit the analysis for the time period in the near future when the climate normals are in the range of the observed variability in the calibration period.…”

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

“…The effects of climate on agriculture is a major research topic covering crop adaptation, migration, and food production 41,42,47 . Climate-driven crop migration and yield reductions have been observed already [48][49][50] and projected for the future 51,52 , but are not typically projected beyond 2100 53 . Using the climate projections detailed above, we model how future climate change may affect the global extent and location of suitable land for the growth of ten major food crops post 2100 54 (Extended Data These latitudinal shifts and reductions in suitable area for crop growth in the centuries after 2100 are not accounted for in existing models forecasting food production for future generations.…”