Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Lyon, Christopher J.; Saupe, Erin E.; Smith, Christopher D.; Hill, Daniel J.; Beckerman, Andrew P.; Stringer, Lindsay C.; Marchant, Robert; McKay, J. T.; Burke, Ariane; O’Higgins, Paul; Dunhill, Alexander M.; Allen, Bethany J.; Riel‐Salvatore, Julien; Aze, Tracy

doi:10.31223/x5qg7d

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…solidungula from Hudson Bay, southern Baffin Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, and coastlines of the Kara and Barents Seas (Russian Island Novaya Zemlya). Despite severe overall losses, there appears to be little risk of contemporary Arctic marine forests becoming extirpated, even under the most extreme climate projections at the time scales considered here (Figure 2), though longer time scales remain unassessed (Lyon et al, 2022). Ecological investigations of intertidal communities on the West coast of Greenland also support the idea that Arctic marine biota will remain resilient to future climate change (Thyrring et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Bringloe

Wilkinson

Goldsmit

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards Librarians. WOA Institution: The University of Melbourne. Blended DEAL: CAUL 2022.temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Bringloe

Wilkinson

Goldsmit

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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“…Currently, the benchmark for climate change projections and impact assessments in most sectors including agriculture is the year 2100 (Lyon et al, 2022). However, Lyon et al (2022) argue that this might be short‐sighted. They propose a much longer time horizon for climate change impact assessments, namely the year 2500.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summary of the worldwide available crop disease risk simulation studies that were driven by climate change scenarios and published during the past 20 years

Juroszek¹,

Bartsch²,

Fontaine³

et al. 2022

Plant Pathology

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Here, published crop disease risk simulations are summarized, which were driven by climate change scenarios on a timescale terminating between 2001 and 2100. Thirty different agricultural and horticultural crops were specifically considered. Wheat diseases (mainly leaf rust) were most often simulated, followed by rice diseases (mainly leaf blast), grapevine diseases (mainly downy mildew) and potato diseases (mainly late blight). Most simulations suggest that within the projection period simulated, crop disease risk will more often increase (86 simulations) than decrease (45 simulations) or remain similar (12 simulations). The majority of crop disease risk simulations focus on Europe and Brazil. For example, there is agreement across crop disease risk simulations that in Europe the risk of leaf rust of wheat will increase. In other cases, there is disagreement across crop disease risk simulations, for example, due to contemporary climatic differences of locations. Therefore, it is risky to extrapolate results across locations. Mitigation and adaptation methods should be more often integrated in the crop disease risk simulations in order to inform about potential methods to reduce disease risk in future.

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The archaeology of climate change: The case for cultural diversity

Burke

Peros

Wren

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Anthropogenic climate change is currently driving environmental transformation on a scale and at a pace that exceeds historical records. This represents an undeniably serious challenge to existing social, political, and economic systems. Humans have successfully faced similar challenges in the past, however. The archaeological record and Earth archives offer rare opportunities to observe the complex interaction between environmental and human systems under different climate regimes and at different spatial and temporal scales. The archaeology of climate change offers opportunities to identify the factors that promoted human resilience in the past and apply the knowledge gained to the present, contributing a much-needed, long-term perspective to climate research. One of the strengths of the archaeological record is the cultural diversity it encompasses, which offers alternatives to the solutions proposed from within the Western agro-industrial complex, which might not be viable cross-culturally. While contemporary climate discourse focuses on the importance of biodiversity, we highlight the importance of cultural diversity as a source of resilience.

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Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Cited by 5 publications

References 90 publications

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Summary of the worldwide available crop disease risk simulation studies that were driven by climate change scenarios and published during the past 20 years

The archaeology of climate change: The case for cultural diversity

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