Summary of the worldwide available crop disease risk simulation studies that were driven by climate change scenarios and published during the past 20 years

Abstract

Here, published crop disease risk simulations are summarized, which were driven by climate change scenarios on a timescale terminating between 2001 and 2100. Thirty different agricultural and horticultural crops were specifically considered. Wheat diseases (mainly leaf rust) were most often simulated, followed by rice diseases (mainly leaf blast), grapevine diseases (mainly downy mildew) and potato diseases (mainly late blight). Most simulations suggest that within the projection period simulated, crop disease risk will more often increase (86 simulations) than decrease (45 simulations) or remain similar (12 simulations). The majority of crop disease risk simulations focus on Europe and Brazil. For example, there is agreement across crop disease risk simulations that in Europe the risk of leaf rust of wheat will increase. In other cases, there is disagreement across crop disease risk simulations, for example, due to contemporary climatic differences of locations. Therefore, it is risky to extrapolate results across locations. Mitigation and adaptation methods should be more often integrated in the crop disease risk simulations in order to inform about potential methods to reduce disease risk in future.

Significance of Direct and Indirect Impacts of Temperature Increase Driven by Climate Change on Threat to Oilseed Rape Posed by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum

“…The present study findings, which deal with the onset of flowering period, are also reflected by the results obtained in the studies performed with the use of models. Racca et al [37] showed that the flowering of oilseed rape compared to the period of 1970-2000 is expected to start earlier, from 17-19 to 30-49 days for 2020-2055 and 2070-2100, respectively.…”

“…Firstly, the development of the disease is influenced by many factors, among which, apart from the temperature, precipitation and humidity play very important roles. It must be pointed out that estimations of the rainfall distribution in a long time period are extremely difficult, if not impossible [37]. It is also not easy to assess long-term breeding progress; hence, there is a lack of knowledge about the phenological development of future cultivars, and their resistance to pathogens makes it difficult to predict disease severity over a period of 100 years.…”

“…For this reason, despite the general agreement on the distinction between these two methods of climate change impacts, it is not easy to find articles that deal with plant disease in which the relationships between the DI and II are expressed in numbers. Among the crops most often taken into account, in the last twenty years, the studies describing pathogen responses to climate change on the basis of simulation results have mostly included wheat, followed by rice, grapevine, and potato, whereas oilseed rape is under-represented [37].…”

Climate risk scenarios of orange rust for the sugarcane-producing regions of Argentina and Brazil

“…This case study adopts a computer-based crop disease risk simulation which modelling approach is known as mechanistic or process-based, according to Juroszek et al (2022). The prospective analysis of climate change on sugarcane orange rust considered the knowledge of the literature and experience of the authors, who incorporated the implicit effects of the interaction of the virulent pathogen, susceptible host, and predisposing environmental characteristics to define the climatic favorability for the occurrence of the disease.…”

Beyond the present: How climate change is relevant to pest risk analysis

“…Evans et al (2008) investigated the effects of climate change on Leptosphaeria maculans (a pathogen of brassica crops) and illustrated that owing to climate change the epidemics of the pathogen will become more severe. A recent review summarizing the crop disease risk simulation studies suggests that climate change will in most cases alter the disease risk either by increasing (most common) or decreasing the risk (Juroszek et al, 2022).…”